Game: Duke Blue Devils vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

Date: February 10th at 9:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Duke is back on the road again tonight, looking to learn from what happened Saturday night in Chapel Hill as they face the Pitt Panthers. After that gut-wrenching loss, the Blue Devils are now 21-2 on the season and suffered their first ACC loss, bringing them to 10-1 in conference play. With this game being on the road, it qualifies as a quad 2 matchup for Duke, a quadrant they are currently 3-0 against this season. Duke continues to average 83.4 points per game (33rd in Division I), while allowing just 63.9 points per game (6th in Division I).

Pitt, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency throughout the season. They enter this contest at 9-15 overall, with a 2-9 record in ACC play. Duke represents a quad 1 opponent for the Panthers, a quadrant they have yet to record a win against, currently sitting at 0-9. Pitt has especially struggled offensively, averaging just 70.8 points per game (267th in Division I), while allowing 71.5 points per game (95th in Division I). This is certainly a matchup where Duke should be able to come in, play Duke basketball, and win in convincing fashion, though only time will tell.

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Betting Overview

Duke opened this contest as a 15.5-point favorite and has only continued to see the line move in their direction, now sitting between -16.5 and -17 at most sportsbooks. The best moneyline value currently sits at -2000 for Duke (Caesars), while Pitt can be found at +1250 (Bet365). The total has remained fairly consistent, opening at 137.5, with some books holding that number and others dropping slightly to 137.

KenPom Ratings

Duke remains 3rd in the KenPom ratings with a net rating of +35.36, while Pitt checks in at 107th with a net rating of +6.14. The Blue Devils carry an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 125.6 (8th nationally), paired with an elite adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 90.2 (3rd nationally). Pitt, meanwhile, owns an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 112.5 (112th nationally), along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 106.3 (123rd nationally). These numbers suggest Pitt is slightly more balanced than their raw scoring averages might indicate.

Betting Trends

The Blue Devils have dominated this series over the years, winning 8 of the last 10 matchups. From an ATS perspective, the teams have split evenly, with each covering five times, while the over has been prominent, cashing in 7 of the 10 games.

Duke enters this matchup 13-10 ATS, with a strong 6-2 record on the road, a 5-2 mark as an away favorite, a 9-6 record with 2-3 days off, and a 6-5 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 16 of 23 games this season. On the road, the under has cashed in 6 of 8 games, including 5 of 7 as a road favorite. In games with 2-3 days off, the under has hit in 11 of 15 contests, as well as 7 of 11 ACC games.

Pitt comes into this game 10-14 ATS, with a 6-9 record at home, a 1-5 mark as a home underdog, a 7-11 record with 2-3 days off, and a 4-7 record in conference play. Totals have slightly favored the over, hitting in 13 of 24 games. At home, the over has hit in 11 of 15 contests, including 5 of 6 as a home underdog. In games with 2-3 days off, the over has cashed in 10 of 18 games, as well as 7 of 11 ACC matchups.

Final Thoughts

It feels like Duke will come into this game with a point to prove and won’t take their foot off the gas. I expect the Blue Devils to have little trouble covering the spread in this spot. As for the total, I’d lean slightly toward the over, largely due to Pitt’s home trends this season.