Game: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: March 7th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

Though they’ve stumbled a bit down the stretch, Clemson will look to cap off an otherwise strong regular season campaign this Saturday against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets will be the road team in this matchup, and it has been a difficult season for them—especially in ACC play.

Georgia Tech enters this contest riding an 11-game losing streak and holds an overall record of 11-19 with a 2-15 mark in the ACC. Playing Clemson on the road makes this a Quad 1 matchup for the Yellow Jackets, and they are just 1-9 against opponents in that quadrant this season. Georgia Tech is averaging 73.7 points per game (209th in Division I) while allowing 77.4 points per contest (249th nationally).

Clemson, meanwhile, dropped a close contest Tuesday night against North Carolina Tar Heels that came down to the final moments. Despite losing five of their last six games, the Tigers are still 21-9 overall with an 11-6 record in ACC play. At home, Georgia Tech will be classified as a Quad 4 opponent for Clemson, and the Tigers are a perfect 7-0 against teams in that quadrant this season.

Clemson is averaging 74.3 points per game (190th in Division I) while allowing just 66.0 points per contest (16th nationally). This is not a game Clemson can afford to overlook, but it does present an opportunity to clean up some issues before postseason play begins.

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Betting Overview

Clemson opened as a sizable 17.5-point favorite, and the line has only shifted slightly, with some sportsbooks moving to -16.5 while others remain at -17.5. The best moneyline value currently sits at +1200 for Georgia Tech and -2400 for Clemson, both available at DraftKings.

The total opened at 144.5 across most sportsbooks, with a few books trimming it slightly to 143.5.

KenPom Ratings

There is a clear gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings. Clemson currently sits 38th with a +19.60 net rating, while Georgia Tech ranks 168th with a -0.15 net rating.

The Tigers carry an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.0 (78th nationally) along with an impressive adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 96.5 (17th nationally). Georgia Tech posts an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 107.1 (209th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 107.3 (128th nationally).

Betting Trends

The first meeting between these teams earlier this season saw the Clemson Tigers win the game, cover the spread, and the under (142.5) cash. Looking at the last 10 meetings overall, Clemson has won seven of those contests, while each team has covered the spread five times. Totals in those matchups have leaned slightly toward the under, hitting in six of the last 10.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets enter this matchup 12-18 ATS, with a strong 7-2 record on the road (all as underdogs), a 10-12 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and a 7-10 record in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over in Georgia Tech games, hitting in 17 of 30 overall. On the road, the over has connected in six of nine contests. In games with 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 13 of 22, and in conference play it has cashed in nine of 17.

Clemson comes in at 15-13-1 ATS, holding a 6-8-1 record at home and a 5-8-1 mark as a home favorite. The Tigers are 8-10-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 9-7-1 in ACC matchups. The under has been highly favorable in Clemson games this season, hitting in 18 of 29 overall. At home, the under has connected in 10 of 15 games, including 10 of 14 as a home favorite. In games with 2–3 days off, the under has hit in 12 of 19, and in conference play it has cashed in 11 of 17 contests.

Final Thoughts

It’s difficult to envision a scenario where Clemson doesn’t win this matchup outright. The bigger question is whether the Tigers can cover the sizable spread. Given Georgia Tech’s strong ATS performance on the road this season, I’m not convinced Clemson will create enough separation to cover.

For that reason, I lean toward Georgia Tech covering the number. As for the total, the conflicting trends between these teams make it difficult to trust either side, so I would stay away.