Game: Louisville Cardinals vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: January 26th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

This week’s Big Monday ACC matchup gives us a rematch from just a few weeks ago in Louisville—only this time, the Cardinals make the trip to Durham looking for revenge after falling 84–73 to the Duke Blue Devils. Louisville is coming off a convincing win over Virginia Tech and will look to carry that momentum into tonight’s contest.

The Cardinals enter at 14-5 overall and 4-3 in ACC play. This is clearly a quad 1 matchup for Louisville, the only quadrant in which they’ve struggled this season, as they currently sit at 3-5. Louisville continues to be one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, averaging 87.8 points per game (15th in Division I), while allowing 69.6 points per game on the defensive end (66th in Division I).

Duke, meanwhile, continues to roll through its ACC schedule with little resistance. After another dominant win on Saturday against Wake Forest, the Blue Devils now sit at 18-1 overall and a perfect 7-0 in conference play. Facing a Louisville team ranked 17th in the NET, Duke will be playing its 10th quad 1 matchup of the season, a category in which it is an impressive 8-1. The Blue Devils have been elite on both ends of the floor, averaging 85.7 points per game (23rd in Division I) while allowing just 65.3 points per game (13th in Division I).

This should be another highly competitive battle on the hardwood and a strong way to kick off another week of college basketball.

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Betting Overview

Duke opened as a modest 6.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved to -8.5. Similar movement has taken place on the moneyline, with the best price on Louisville shifting to +340 (from +235), while Duke now sits at -410 (from -290). The total has seen minimal movement, opening at 155.5 and climbing slightly to between 156.5 and 157.5, depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

Duke has held firmly in the No. 3 spot in KenPom, owning a net rating of +33.71. Louisville checks in at 16th with a net rating of +26.29. The Blue Devils rank 5th nationally in both adjusted offensive efficiency (126.5) and adjusted defensive efficiency (92.8), a balance that makes them extremely difficult to match up against.

Louisville profiles as more offense-driven, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 126.2 (7th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 99.9 (34th nationally). For the Cardinals, the key will be ensuring their offense is firing at a high level in order to keep pace with this dominant Duke squad.

Betting Trends

In the earlier meeting this month, Duke won comfortably, covered the 1.5-point spread, and saw the under cash at 161.5. The Blue Devils have now won eight straight against Louisville. Over the last 10 matchups, Duke has covered six times (with one push), and the under has hit in seven of those contests.

Louisville enters the game 11-8 ATS on the season, with a 2-3 record on the road and an 0-1 mark as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 1-0 with one day of rest and 3-4 in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Louisville games, hitting in 11 of 19 overall. On the road, the over has hit in three of five games, though the under hit in their lone game as a road underdog and in their only contest with one day of rest. In ACC play, the under has hit in five of seven games.

Duke also sits at 11-8 ATS this season, with a 4-5 record at home, all of which have come as favorites. The Blue Devils are 0-1 with one day of rest and 4-3 against the spread in ACC games. The under has been prominent in Duke contests as well, hitting in 12 of 19 overall and five of nine at home. In their lone game with one day of rest, the under cashed, while ACC games have slightly favored the over, hitting in four of seven.

Final Thoughts

This matchup presents a significant test for both teams. Duke looks to continue the momentum it has built throughout January and conference play, while Louisville seeks its first ACC win this season against a quad 1 opponent. Given how dominant Duke has been, it’s difficult to fade the Blue Devils in this spot. I expect Duke to be too much for Louisville to handle and to cover the spread. Despite the historical and season-long trends pointing toward the under, I lean toward the over hitting in this contest.