Game: Louisville Cardinals vs. UNC Tar Heels

Date: February 23rd at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Another “Big Monday” is here as the regular season continues to wind down. Tonight, the Louisville Cardinals travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. Louisville has been playing strong basketball of late, winning four of its last five games. The Cardinals enter this matchup with a 20-7 overall record and a 9-5 mark in ACC play.

This will be Louisville’s 14th Quad 1 opportunity of the season, a quadrant in which they are 6-7. The Cardinals are averaging 86.8 points per game (13th in Division I) while allowing 71.8 points per contest (96th nationally).

Carolina has managed its injuries well over the past few weeks and picked up a significant road win over Syracuse on Saturday. The Tar Heels now sit at 21-6 overall with a 9-5 record in the ACC. Hosting a Louisville team ranked 13th in the NET, this will also be a Quad 1 game for UNC, a category where they are currently 5-6. North Carolina is averaging 80.7 points per game (59th in Division I) while allowing 70.6 points per game (75th nationally).

We should be in for an exciting showdown at the Dean Smith Center, as both teams look to stay hot heading into the conference tournament.

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Betting Overview

The line for this matchup opened with Louisville as a 1.5-point favorite and has since moved further in their direction to -2.5. The moneyline has followed a similar pattern, with Louisville shifting to -154 (from -148) and UNC moving to +140 (from +124). The total has ticked up slightly from 161.5 to 162 or 162.5, depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom ratings, Louisville currently sits 15th nationally with a +26.49 net rating, while UNC ranks 30th with a +21.05 net rating. The Cardinals boast an adjusted offensive efficiency of 125.3 (13th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.8 (28th nationally).

UNC, meanwhile, owns an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.1 (31st nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 101.0 (38th nationally).

Betting Trends

The North Carolina Tar Heels have fared well against the Louisville Cardinals in recent seasons, winning seven of the last 10 meetings. From an ATS perspective, however, the teams have split the last 10 matchups evenly at five covers apiece. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over, cashing in six of the last 10 contests.

Louisville enters this matchup at 14-13 ATS overall, including a 2-6 record on the road and a 2-4 mark as an away favorite. The Cardinals are 2-1 ATS with one day of rest and 5-9 ATS in ACC play. Totals have favored the under overall, hitting in 15 of 27 games. On the road, though, the over has connected in five of eight contests, including five of seven as an away favorite. With one day of rest, the under has hit in two of three games, and in conference play, the under has cashed in eight of 14.

UNC sits at 15-12 ATS this season, posting a strong 10-5 mark at home. The Tar Heels are 1-0 ATS as a home underdog, 1-2 ATS with one day of rest, and 7-7 ATS in the ACC. Totals have also leaned toward the under in UNC games, hitting in 16 of 27 overall. At home, the under has cashed in 10 of 15 contests, including the lone game as a home underdog. With one day of rest, the over has connected in two of three games, while in conference action the over has hit in eight of 14.

Final Thoughts

Louisville has handled weaker opponents well in recent weeks, but they have shown vulnerability against higher-profile competition. Playing on the road in Chapel Hill presents a difficult challenge, and the environment could make it tough for the Cardinals to dictate their preferred pace and style. For that reason, I’m backing UNC to cover in this spot. I’ll stay away from the total in this matchup.