Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Date: February 26th at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Peacock

Tonight, we get a heavyweight matchup in the Big Ten, as the Michigan State Spartans travel to West Lafayette, Indiana, to take on the Purdue Boilermakers. These programs share a strong history, especially in recent seasons.

Michigan State has suffered a few tough losses of late but enters this contest having won three of its last five games. The Spartans hold a 22-5 overall record and are 12-4 in Big Ten play. Facing the 6th-ranked (NET) Boilermakers on the road makes this a clear Quad 1 opportunity for Michigan State, a quadrant in which they are 6-5 this season. The Spartans are averaging 78.4 points per game (93rd in Division I) while allowing just 66.1 points per contest (17th nationally), an impressive defensive mark given the strength of the conference.

Purdue has also been playing strong basketball, winning four of its last five, with its lone loss coming against a tough Michigan squad. The Boilermakers are likewise 22-5 overall and 12-4 in the Big Ten. Hosting the 12th-ranked (NET) Spartans makes this a Quad 1 matchup for Purdue as well, and they are 8-5 against such competition. Purdue averages 82.9 points per game (36th in Division I) while allowing 69.3 points per contest (53rd nationally).

With Michigan essentially holding the top spot in the Big Ten, both of these teams will look to strengthen their tournament résumés and positioning for the upcoming conference tournament.

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Betting Overview

Purdue opened as a modest 5.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved to between -7 and -7.5 at most sportsbooks. The moneyline hasn’t shifted quite as dramatically, with Michigan State sitting around +270 (from +250) and Purdue listed near -325 (from -310). The total has climbed from its opening number of 139.5 to a range between 142 and 142.5.

KenPom Ratings

There’s a narrow gap between these teams in the KenPom rankings, with Purdue sitting 7th nationally at a +31.65 net rating and Michigan State 11th at +28.51.

Purdue boasts an elite adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 129.9 (2nd nationally), highlighting its offensive cohesion, along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.2 (23rd nationally). Michigan State counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 120.9 (42nd nationally) and an impressive adjusted defensive efficiency mark of 92.4 (6th nationally).

Betting Trends

The Purdue Boilermakers have controlled this matchup in recent years, winning eight of the last 10 meetings. However, the Michigan State Spartans have been slightly stronger against the spread, covering in six of those 10 contests. The under has also been more prominent in this series, hitting in six of the last 10 matchups.

Michigan State enters at 12-13-2 ATS, including a 2-4-1 record on the road and an 0-0-1 mark as an away underdog. The Spartans are 7-6-2 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-7-1 ATS in Big Ten play. Totals have leaned toward the under overall, cashing in 16 of 27 games. On the road, the over has actually been more favorable, hitting in four of seven contests, though the under came through in the lone game as an away underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has hit in nine of 15 games. In conference action, the under has connected in nine of 16 matchups.

Purdue sits at 13-14 ATS this season, with a 5-10 record at home and a 5-9 mark as a home favorite. The Boilermakers are 6-2 ATS with four or more days of rest and 7-9 ATS in Big Ten play. Totals have slightly favored the under overall, hitting in 14 of 27 games. At home, however, the over has been more common, cashing in 10 of 15 contests and nine of 14 as a home favorite. With 4+ days of rest, totals have split evenly at four games apiece. In conference play, the over has hit in nine of 16 games.

Final Thoughts

This shapes up as a compelling Big Ten battle featuring contrasting styles and two elite head coaches in Tom Izzo and Matt Painter. While Michigan State hasn’t had much success straight up against Purdue in recent meetings, I expect the Spartans to keep this game competitive and cover the 7.5-point spread. The total presents too many conflicting trends for my liking, so I’ll stay away from it.