Game: NC State Wolfpack vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: January 20th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

Clemson continues to roll through conference play without much resistance. Tonight, the Tigers will host the NC State Wolfpack, who will look to hand Clemson its first ACC loss and snap a 13-game home winning streak. NC State has shown flashes of being a very strong team this season, but they’ve also proven capable of dropping games to nearly anyone in the conference. The Wolfpack enter this matchup at 12-6 overall and 3-2 in ACC play. This is a clear quad-1 opportunity for NC State, a category in which they have yet to find success this season, sitting at 0-5 against quad-1 opponents. Offensively, NC State has been prolific, averaging 85.8 points per game (26th in Division I), but they give a good portion back on the defensive end, allowing 71.6 points per game (97th in Division I). 

Following Saturday’s win over Miami, Clemson now sits at 16-3 overall with a perfect 6-0 record in ACC play. With NC State ranked 34th in the NET, this matchup qualifies as a quad-2 game for the Tigers, a category in which they are 5-1 this season. Clemson averages 77.2 points per game offensively (134th in Division I), while allowing just 64.5 points per game (9th in Division I). This sets up a clash of contrasting styles, and despite the differences, this should be a competitive battle on both ends of the floor.

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Betting Overview

The spread for this matchup has remained steady, holding at Clemson -3.5. The moneyline has also seen minimal movement, with NC State sitting at +155 (from +164) and Clemson at -180 (from -198). The total has been more volatile, opening at 145.5 before dropping across the board. Depending on the sportsbook, this number now sits at 140.5, 141.5, or as high as 143.5.

KenPom Ratings

These teams sit very close to one another in the KenPom rankings, with Clemson at 25th and a +21.59 net rating, and NC State at 30th with a +20.28 net rating. Clemson owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 118.6 (66th nationally), paired with an elite adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.0 (14th nationally). NC State, meanwhile, checks in with a 121.9 adjusted offensive efficiency (37th nationally) and a 101.7 adjusted defensive efficiency (40th nationally). Overall, NC State profiles as the more balanced team, while Clemson’s identity is clearly rooted in its defense.

Betting Trends

These two ACC programs are very familiar with one another, having met 10 times dating back to 2020. Clemson has clearly held the upper hand in this series, winning 8 of those matchups and covering in 8 as well, with one push mixed in. Totals have leaned slightly toward the under, which has hit in 6 of the 10 meetings.

NC State sits at an even 9-9 ATS this season, with a 1-2 record on the road, an 0-1 mark as an away underdog, a 5-4 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-3 record in ACC play. Totals have been perfectly split in Wolfpack games, with 9 overs and 9 unders. On the road, the over has hit in 2 of 3 games, though the lone contest as an away underdog went under the total. With 2–3 days off, the over has cashed in 7 of 13 games, while in conference play the under has hit in 3 of 5.

Clemson is 11-6-1 ATS on the year, including a 5-4-1 record at home (all as favorites), a 5-4-1 record with 2–3 days of rest, and an impressive 5-0-1 mark in ACC play. Totals have favored the under for the Tigers, hitting in 11 of 18 games overall, including 8 of 10 at home, 6 of 10 with 2–3 days off, and 4 of 6 in conference matchups.

Final Thoughts

This matchup shapes up as Clemson’s toughest conference test to date. While the Tigers benefit from playing at home, this is easily the most balanced opponent they’ve faced through six ACC games. I expect NC State to bring enough resistance to keep this one close, and I like the Wolfpack to cover in this spot. As for the total, there’s enough conflicting data to justify staying away entirely.