Game: NC State Wolfpack vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Date: February 28th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

As of late, the NC State Wolfpack have not been at their sharpest, but they’ll look to get back on track Saturday afternoon in South Bend, Indiana, against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. NC State has dropped three of its last five contests and enters this matchup at 19-9 overall with a 10-5 record in ACC play. This qualifies as a Quad 2 opportunity for the Wolfpack on the road, a quadrant in which they are 7-2 this season. NC State continues to thrive offensively, averaging 84.0 points per game (23rd in Division I), though they’ve allowed 74.4 points per contest (172nd nationally).

Notre Dame endured a tough outing against Duke on Tuesday and has also lost four of its last five games. The Irish come into this contest at 12-16 overall with a 3-12 mark in ACC play. They have navigated a demanding schedule featuring 12 Quad 1 matchups, with Saturday marking their 13th. Notre Dame is just 2-10 against Quad 1 opponents this season. The Irish average 73.8 points per game (205th in Division I) while allowing 74.4 points per contest (172nd nationally).

Given NC State’s recent inconsistencies, this presents an opportunity to build momentum with a convincing road win.

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Betting Overview

There hasn’t been significant movement in the betting markets, as NC State has consistently been listed as a 6.5-point favorite. On the moneyline, the best value for the Wolfpack is around -275 (BetMGM), while Notre Dame is available at +255 (FanDuel). The total has remained steady at 153.5 across most major sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom rankings, NC State sits 28th nationally with a +21.51 net rating, while Notre Dame comes in 89th with a +8.97 net rating.

The Wolfpack hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.7 (26th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.2 (41st nationally). Notre Dame posts an adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.8 (93rd nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 105.8 (104th nationally).

Betting Trends

The NC State Wolfpack have held the upper hand in this matchup in recent years, winning seven of the last 10 meetings against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. However, from an ATS standpoint, the Irish have had the edge, covering in six of those 10 contests. Totals have leaned toward the under in this series as well, hitting in six of the last 10 matchups.

NC State enters at 15-12-1 ATS, including a 5-4 record on the road and a 3-1 mark as a road favorite. The Wolfpack are 11-4-1 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-6-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the over overall, cashing in 16 of 28 NC State games. On the road, the over has connected in seven of nine contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has hit in 11 of 16 games, and in conference play the over has cashed in nine of 15.

Notre Dame sits at 14-14 ATS this season, posting a 7-8 record at home and a 2-3 mark as a home underdog. The Irish are 8-9 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 6-9 ATS in ACC play. Totals have also leaned toward the over, hitting in 19 of 28 contests. At home, the over has connected in 12 of 15 games, including all five as a home underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the over has cashed in 14 of 17 matchups, and in ACC action it has hit in 12 of 15.

Final Thoughts

At this stage of the season, NC State feels like a team searching for consistency, but this presents a strong opportunity to regain momentum. I expect the Wolfpack to approach this matchup with urgency and ultimately cover the number. As for the total, the season-long trends for both teams point toward the over.