Game: North Texas Mean Green vs. Charlotte 49ers

Date: February 25th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

When things were looking bleak for the Charlotte 49ers, they turned their season around with a big home win over ECU on Saturday. Tonight, they’ll host a solid North Texas Mean Green squad in a matchup we’re seeing for the first time this season.

North Texas enters at 16-12 overall with a 7-8 mark in the American Conference. As the road team, Charlotte qualifies as a Quad 3 opponent for the Mean Green, and they are currently 5-2 against such competition. North Texas doesn’t score at a particularly high clip, averaging just 68.6 points per game (303rd in Division I), but they make up for it defensively, allowing only 67.7 points per contest (28th nationally).

After Saturday’s victory, Charlotte has climbed back above the .500 mark at 14-13 overall and 8-6 in conference play. Hosting the 151st-ranked North Texas squad makes this a Quad 3 matchup for the 49ers as well, a quadrant where they are 3-4 this season. Charlotte averages 73.0 points per game (224th in Division I) while allowing 73.4 points per contest (150th nationally).

This sets up a competitive battle between two similarly rated conference teams.

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Betting Overview

There’s noticeable discrepancy across sportsbooks, with some listing North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite and others making Charlotte a 1.5-point favorite. On the moneyline, the best value appears to be North Texas at -104 (FanDuel) and Charlotte at -110 (Bet365). The total has already seen movement, opening at 135.5 and climbing to between 137.5 and 138 at most books.

KenPom Ratings

In the KenPom rankings, North Texas sits 141st with a +1.69 net rating, while Charlotte ranks 188th with a -1.74 net rating. The Mean Green hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 103.9 (272nd nationally) paired with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.3 (49th nationally).

Charlotte enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 112.7 (119th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 114.4 (275th nationally).

Betting Trends

Across the last nine meetings between these programs dating back to 2018, the North Texas Mean Green have won five of nine, though the Charlotte 49ers have been stronger against the spread, covering in six of those matchups. The under has also been favorable in this series, cashing in six of the last nine contests.

North Texas enters at 14-12 ATS this season, including a 6-4 record on the road, a 9-5 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and an 8-7 record in American Conference play. Totals have leaned slightly toward the under overall, hitting in 14 of 26 games. On the road, over/unders have split five games apiece, and with 2–3 days of rest, totals have also split seven games each way. In conference action, however, the over has hit in nine of 14 games.

Charlotte also comes in at 14-12 ATS, posting an 8-6 record at home, an 8-6 mark with 2–3 days of rest, and an 8-6 record in conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over in 49ers games, hitting in 15 of 26 overall. At home, the over has connected in eight of 14 contests, and the same holds true in games with 2–3 days of rest. In American Conference matchups, the over has cashed in nine of 14 games.

Final Thoughts

This shapes up as a difficult game to handicap, with both teams entering in fairly similar form. On paper, North Texas may hold a slight edge, but they’ll have to overcome the challenge of playing on the road. With Charlotte showing some inconsistency of late, I would lean toward North Texas to win and cover. As for the total, I’m staying away in this spot.