Game: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: February 14th at 2:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

After the highest of highs just a week ago in Chapel Hill, things feel a bit uncertain seven days later, especially following the Caleb Wilson injury news. Fortunately for UNC, they won’t face the stiffest competition this Saturday, as the Pitt Panthers come to town. Pitt enters this matchup at 9-16 overall and just 2-10 in ACC play. This will be the Panthers’ 10th Quad 1 game of the season, and they are still searching for their first win in that category at 0-9. Offensively, Pitt has struggled with consistency, averaging just 70.1 points per game (278th in Division I) while allowing 71.5 points per game (95th nationally).

UNC is coming off a tough road loss at Miami, dropping to 19-5 overall and 7-4 in the ACC. Hosting Pitt makes this a Quad 3 opportunity for the Tar Heels, a quadrant in which they are 7-0 this season. Carolina is averaging 81.9 points per game (48th in Division I) while allowing 70.7 points per game (78th nationally). With Caleb Wilson sidelined indefinitely, these are the types of games UNC must handle to maintain its NCAA Tournament résumé. The offense may look a bit different without him, and someone will need to step up to fill that void.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

This game opened with UNC as an 11.5-point favorite and has largely held at that number, though some books have adjusted to -11 or even -10.5. The moneyline has remained relatively steady, with Pitt available as high as +500 at some books and UNC sitting around -675. The total has also been stable at 144.5, although a few sportsbooks have dipped slightly lower to 143.5.

KenPom Ratings

There’s a clear separation between these programs in the KenPom rankings, with UNC sitting 28th and holding a net rating of +21.66, while Pitt ranks 109th with a +6.04 net rating. The Tar Heels carry an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.3 (27th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.6 (46th nationally). Pitt, on the other hand, owns an adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.2 (114th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 106.1 (121st nationally).

Betting Trends

The Tar Heels haven’t had the best run against Pitt over the last 10 meetings, as the Panthers have won 6 of 10 and covered in eight of those contests. As for totals, the under has been the stronger trend, cashing in 7 of the last 10 matchups.

Pitt enters this game at 11-14 ATS, including a 3-4 mark on the road and a 2-3 record as a road underdog. The Panthers are 8-11 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 5-7 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over overall, hitting in 13 of 25 games. However, on the road, the under has connected in four of seven games, as well as three of five as a road underdog. With 2-3 days of rest, the over has hit in 10 of 19 contests, and in conference play, the over has cashed in 7 of 12.

Carolina sits at 13-11 ATS, including a strong 9-5 record at home and an 8-5 mark as a home favorite. The Tar Heels are 5-7 ATS with 2-3 days of rest and 5-6 ATS in ACC competition. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 13 of 24 games overall. At home, the under has cashed in 9 of 14, as well as 8 of 13 as a home favorite. In games with 2-3 days of rest, totals have split evenly at 6 overs and 6 unders. In ACC play, however, the over has been more favorable, hitting in 8 of 11 contests.

Final Thoughts

This is an intriguing spot for Carolina as we get our first look at the team without Caleb Wilson. It’s a difficult game to handicap given the uncertainty surrounding how the offense adjusts. Without clear evidence of how UNC performs without its star, the lean here would be toward Pitt to cover the number. The total feels far less predictable, making it a pass for me.