Game: Rice Owls vs. Charlotte 49ers

Date: January 30th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Coming off an overtime thriller in Philadelphia against the Temple Owls, the Charlotte 49ers picked up another quality win and continue to show real promise in American Conference play. On Wednesday night, they’ll face another Owls squad—this time at home against Rice.

These teams met just a few weeks ago in Houston, where Charlotte narrowly escaped with a 74–73 victory. Rice has been involved in a number of tight games this season, though many have not gone their way. The Owls sit at 9–12 overall with a 3–5 record in conference play. Facing a Charlotte team ranked 155th in the NET, this road matchup qualifies as a Quad 3 game for Rice, a quadrant in which they are just 1–6 this season.

Offensively, Rice is averaging 71.7 points per game (248th in Division I) while allowing 77.4 points per game (249th). Charlotte, meanwhile, enters on a three-game winning streak and now stands at 12–9 overall with a 6–2 record in the American. This contest qualifies as a Quad 4 matchup for the 49ers, and they have been perfect against that quadrant this season at 8–0. Charlotte is averaging 74.0 points per game (203rd in Division I) while allowing 73.2 points per game (137th).

It will be interesting to see whether this game mirrors the razor-thin finish from a few weeks ago, or if Charlotte asserts itself as the superior team on its home floor.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

The betting market has shown little movement for this matchup, with Charlotte opening as a 6.5-point favorite and holding steady at that number. On the moneyline, Rice is available at +250, while Charlotte is listed as a –315 favorite. The total has been consistently posted at 142.5 across most sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

Looking at the KenPom metrics, Charlotte checks in at 170th nationally with a –0.66 net rating, while Rice sits at 237th with a –5.98 net rating. The 49ers profile as the more efficient offensive team, owning an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 113.5 (105th nationally), though their defense has struggled, with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 114.2 (280th).

Rice shows a similar profile, posting an adjusted offensive efficiency of 108.4 (185th nationally) alongside an adjusted defensive efficiency of 114.4 (284th). If the Owls are able to keep pace offensively with Charlotte, this matchup could once again come down to the final possessions.

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these programs, Charlotte has won seven times, though Rice has held a slight edge against the spread, covering in five of those contests with one push. When it comes to totals, the under has been the prevailing result, hitting in seven of the last 10 matchups. In their most recent meeting on January 11, Charlotte earned the win, Rice covered the spread, and the over cashed.

Rice enters this game 11–8 ATS on the season. The Owls are 5–3 on the road and 4–2 as an away underdog, and this will mark their first game of the season with just one day of rest. They are also 6–2 in American Conference play. Totals have leaned toward the over for Rice this season, hitting in 11 of 19 games. On the road, totals are split evenly at four overs and four unders, though unders have been more common when Rice is listed as an away underdog, cashing in four of six such games. In conference play, the over has resurfaced as the stronger trend, hitting in five of eight games.

Charlotte comes in at 11–9 ATS, with a 6–5 record at home and a 5–3 mark as a home favorite. The 49ers have yet to play a game this season with just one day of rest and are 5–3 in American Conference action. Overs have been favorable in Charlotte games, hitting in 12 of 20 overall. At home, the over has cashed in six of 11 contests, including four of eight when Charlotte is listed as a home favorite, with one push. In conference games, the over has hit in six of eight.

Final Thoughts

As games begin to carry greater weight with February approaching, this matchup provides another test of which teams can be trusted down the stretch. Given Charlotte’s tendency to play close games rather than pull away this season, there is value in backing Rice to cover the spread. As for the total, a slight lean toward the over makes sense based on both teams’ season-long trends.