Game: Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: February 16th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Duke finds itself in yet another “Big Monday” matchup on ESPN, hosting the Syracuse Orange in Durham. Syracuse enters on a two-game winning streak and sits at 15-11 overall, looking to climb back to .500 in ACC play as it currently stands at 6-7. The Orange have struggled against top-tier competition this season, posting a 1-6 record against Quad 1 opponents. Offensively, they bring a fairly balanced profile, averaging 76.5 points per game (136th in Division I) while allowing 72.2 points per game (108th nationally).

Duke is also riding a two-game winning streak, highlighted by an impressive second-half performance against Clemson on Saturday in which the Blue Devils took full control. Duke boasts a 23-2 overall record and sits at 12-1 in ACC play. Hosting 69th-ranked Syracuse makes this a Quad 2 matchup for the Blue Devils, a category in which they are a perfect 5-0 this season. Through 25 games, Duke is averaging 82.2 points per game (42nd in Division I) while allowing just 63.1 points per game (3rd nationally). As has been the case in many of Duke’s matchups this season, the Blue Devils hold a clear edge on paper — but the question remains how that advantage translates on the court.

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Betting Overview

Duke opened as a sizable 20.5-point favorite and remains a heavy favorite, though the line has shifted slightly toward Syracuse, with most books listing Duke at -19.5. The moneyline range is wide, with Syracuse priced as high as +2000 at some sportsbooks and Duke around -4000. The total has dipped marginally from the opening number of 143.5, now sitting between 142.5 and 143 at most books.

KenPom Ratings

There is a significant gap between these programs in the KenPom rankings. Duke sits 2nd nationally with a net rating of +35.90, while Syracuse ranks 69th with a +11.89 net rating. The Blue Devils carry an adjusted offensive efficiency of 125.3 (10th nationally) along with an elite adjusted defensive efficiency of 89.4 (2nd nationally). Syracuse enters with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.1 (79th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.2 (67th nationally). While both teams are relatively balanced, Duke is markedly more efficient on both ends of the floor.

Betting Trends

Duke has dominated this series in recent years, winning the last 10 meetings dating back to 2019. The Blue Devils have also been strong against the spread in those contests, covering eight of the last 10. As for totals, the over has held a slight edge, hitting in six of those 10 matchups.

This season, Syracuse enters at 14-12 ATS, including a 4-2 record on the road and a 3-1 mark as a road underdog. The Orange are 2-1 ATS with one day of rest and 8-5 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over overall, hitting in 14 of 26 games. On the road, the over has cashed in five of six contests, including three of four as a road underdog. With one day of rest, the under has connected in two of three games. In conference play, the over has hit in nine of 13 matchups.

Duke sits at 13-12 ATS this season, with a 5-7 record at home, all as favorites. The Blue Devils are 1-1 ATS with one day of rest and 6-7 ATS in ACC competition. Totals have heavily favored the under, cashing in 18 of 25 games overall. At home, the under has hit in eight of 12 contests. In games with one day of rest, both have gone under. In ACC play, the under has also connected in nine of 13 games.

Final Thoughts

Duke has been dominant for much of the season, particularly with its ability to pull away in the second half. This matchup presents another opportunity for the Blue Devils to fine-tune their approach as March approaches. Syracuse, while inconsistent at times, comes in with some momentum and has shown the ability to compete on the road. Given the size of the spread, the lean would be toward Syracuse to cover the 19.5 points. As for the total, Duke’s strong under trends make that the preferred side in this matchup.