Game: Syracuse Orange vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Date: February 2nd at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Monday night hoops brings another ACC showdown, as the Syracuse Orange travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. 

Syracuse snapped a significant four-game losing streak on Saturday with a win over Notre Dame, improving to 13–9 overall and 4–5 in ACC play—just one game below .500 in the conference. This matchup qualifies as a Quad 1 game for Syracuse, a quadrant in which the Orange are 1–4 this season. From a statistical standpoint, Syracuse has leaned more defensive, averaging 75.8 points per game (158th in Division I) while allowing just 70.0 points per game (67th).

UNC, meanwhile, has rebounded nicely from a difficult West Coast trip, rattling off three straight wins and looking to carry that momentum into Monday night before a marquee showdown with Duke on Saturday. The Tar Heels sit at 17–4 overall with a 5–3 record in ACC play. For UNC, Syracuse represents a Quad 2 matchup, a quadrant in which the Heels are 1–1 this season. Offensively, North Carolina has been explosive, averaging 83.0 points per game (41st nationally), while allowing 70.3 points per game (72nd).

The key question heading into this matchup is whether Syracuse can keep pace offensively with UNC, particularly in a challenging road environment.

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Betting Overview

The betting market has moved noticeably in favor of North Carolina. UNC opened as a 9.5-point favorite and has since been bet up to –11.5. The moneyline has seen less movement on the favorite, with UNC holding steady around –650, while Syracuse has drifted from +470 at open to as high as +590. The total has steadily climbed as well, opening at 153.5 and now sitting around 156.5 at most sportsbooks.

KenPom Ratings

KenPom remains somewhat cautious on North Carolina, ranking the Tar Heels 29th nationally with a +21.53 net rating. Syracuse checks in at 70th with a +11.86 net rating. UNC boasts an elite adjusted offensive efficiency of 123.6 (18th nationally) paired with a solid adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.1 (53rd).

Syracuse, while not rated as highly overall, brings a more balanced profile, owning an adjusted offensive efficiency of 115.1 (83rd nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 103.2 (69th). That balance could make this matchup more competitive than the spread might suggest.

Betting Trends

North Carolina has largely controlled this series dating back to 2019, winning seven of the last 10 meetings. From an ATS perspective, Syracuse has had more success, covering in six of those 10 games. Totals have leaned heavily toward the over, which has cashed in seven of the 10 matchups.

Syracuse enters this game 10–12 ATS on the season. The Orange are 2–2 on the road, 1–1 as an away underdog, 1–1 in games with one day of rest, and 4–5 in ACC play. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 12 of 22 games overall and in all four road games this season. However, in games with just one day off, the under has hit in both instances. In conference play, the over has been the clear trend, cashing in seven of nine games.

North Carolina comes in at 12–9 ATS, with an 8–4 record at home, all of which have come as favorites. The Tar Heels are 1–1 in games with one day of rest and 4–4 in ACC action. Totals have leaned slightly toward the under overall, hitting in 11 of 21 games. At home, the under has been even stronger, cashing in eight of 12 contests. That said, ACC games involving UNC have skewed heavily toward the over, with seven of eight conference matchups going over the total.

Final Thoughts

With UNC playing at an extremely high level at home and Syracuse forced to travel on short rest, the momentum clearly favors the Tar Heels in this matchup. Expect North Carolina to continue its dominance in Chapel Hill and cover the sizable spread. As for the total, it’s best approached with caution given the conflicting trends on both sides.