Game: UNC Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 7th at 6:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

At 6:30 on ESPN, we get the second installment of the rivalry between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils. Carolina got the best of Duke earlier this season in Chapel Hill, but things look a little different now. Carolina has since lost star player Caleb Wilson for the remainder of the season; however, they have managed fairly well in his absence, winning five of their last seven games since that meeting with Duke. The Tar Heels are now 24-6 on the season with a 12-5 record in the ACC. Against Quad 1 opponents, UNC sits at an even 6-6 this year. They are now averaging 80.4 points per game (61st in Division I), while allowing 70.9 points per game (78th in Division I).

For Duke, we’ve seen a renewed sense of urgency since that loss to Carolina about a month ago, as they have looked like the most dominant team in the nation. Not only have they won every game since that day, but they’ve done so by double digits in every contest except for the neutral-site game against Michigan. Duke now sits at 28-2 overall with a 16-1 record in the ACC and has already secured the ACC regular-season title. Heading into their 17th Quad 1 matchup of the year, the Blue Devils hold a 14-2 record against opponents in that quadrant. Every Carolina–Duke matchup carries plenty of intensity, but with how dominant Duke has been recently, it will be a tough task for the Tar Heels to walk into Cameron Indoor Stadium and keep this one close.

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Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for this matchup, Duke was listed as a 16.5-point favorite. Since then, the line has moved slightly in their favor, with the Blue Devils now sitting around -17.5 at most sportsbooks.

Looking at the moneyline, the best value for each team currently comes in at +1500 for UNC (Bet365 or DraftKings) and -3000 for Duke (BetMGM or FanDuel). The total has also moved upward slightly, climbing from the opening number of 144.5 to around 146.5.

KenPom Ratings

The Blue Devils enter this game ranked No. 1 in the KenPom ratings with a net rating of +40.70, while UNC sits at 29th with a net rating of +21.15.

Duke currently holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 128.7 (4th nationally) along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 88.0 (1st nationally). The Tar Heels, meanwhile, have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 121.8 (34th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 100.6 (40th nationally).

Betting Trends

In the first meeting earlier this season, the North Carolina Tar Heels came away with the win while also covering as 6.5-point underdogs, and the under (152.5) hit in the 71–68 game. Looking at the last 10 meetings between these rivals, each team has won five games. Carolina has held a slight edge against the spread, covering six of those contests, while totals have split evenly with five overs and five unders.

Carolina enters this matchup with a 17-13 ATS record, including a 4-5 mark on the road and a 3-2 record as a road underdog. The Tar Heels are also 8-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 9-8 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Carolina games this season, hitting in 18 of 30 contests. On the road, however, the over has been slightly more favorable, cashing in five of nine games. When Carolina has been a road underdog, the under has hit in three of five contests. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has connected in 10 of 16 games, while in ACC play the over has hit in nine of 17.

The Duke Blue Devils enter this matchup 18-12 ATS, holding a 7-7 record at home (all as favorites), a 4-3 mark with 4+ days of rest, and a 10-7 record in ACC games. The under has been very prominent in Duke contests this season, hitting in 20 of their 30 regular-season games. At home, the under has connected in nine of 14 games. With 4+ days of rest, the under has hit in four of seven matchups, and in conference play the under has cashed in 10 of 17 games.

Final Thoughts

Anytime Carolina and Duke meet, the game carries extra intensity and excitement. Even with the rivalry factor, this matchup appears to heavily favor Duke, especially with the Blue Devils playing at home and UNC dealing with injuries. Duke has been dominant down the stretch and looks well positioned to control this game.

Because of that, I expect Duke to ultimately cover the large spread when this one is all said and done. As for the total, I would slightly lean toward the under.