Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Date: January 24th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN2

In one of the premier college basketball matchups on Saturday, the North Carolina Tar Heels head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. UNC is coming off a dominant, confidence-boosting win over Notre Dame, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into a difficult road test against the Hoos. The Tar Heels sit at 15-4 overall and have worked their way back to .500 in ACC play at 3-3. This will be UNC’s eighth Quad 1 matchup of the season, where they currently hold a 3-4 record and have a chance to even things up. Offensively, Carolina has been efficient, averaging 82.4 points per game (49th in Division I), while allowing 69.5 points per game (66th).

Virginia has been just as impressive, riding a five-game winning streak into this contest. The Cavaliers are 16-2 overall, 5-1 in the ACC, and 4-2 in Quad 1 games. While this isn’t the slow-paced Tony Bennett era Virginia teams we’re used to, the Hoos have remained balanced on both ends of the floor. They’re averaging 84.0 points per game (39th in Division I) while still playing strong defense, allowing just 67.1 points per game (27th). This sets up as a marquee ACC showdown that has all the makings of a tight, competitive game.

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Betting Overview

The betting market has been steady, with Virginia holding firm as a 6.5-point favorite. On the moneyline, the best value for North Carolina is +260 at FanDuel, while Virginia can be found at -275 at Bet365. The total has ticked up slightly, moving from 149.5 to 150.5.

KenPom Ratings

The separation between these teams is a bit more pronounced in the KenPom rankings than in the NET. Virginia sits 13th overall with a +27.10 net rating, while North Carolina checks in at 33rd with a +19.83 rating. The Cavaliers rank 17th nationally in both adjusted offensive efficiency (124.6) and adjusted defensive efficiency (97.5). UNC counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.6 (28th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.8 (53rd).

Betting Trends

This matchup has been fairly even in recent history, with each team winning five of the last ten meetings, and that balance carries over to the ATS results as well. One notable trend, however, has been with the total, as the under has hit in seven of those ten games.

North Carolina is 10-9 ATS this season, with a 1-3 record on the road, a 1-1 mark as an away underdog, a 4-6 record with 2–3 days of rest, and a 2-4 record in ACC play. Overall, the under has hit in 11 of 19 UNC games. Interestingly, on the road the over has been more common, hitting in three of four games, while totals have split evenly in games where the Tar Heels have been road underdogs. In contests with 2–3 days of rest, totals have split evenly as well, and in ACC play the over has hit in five of six games.

Virginia has been more reliable from an ATS standpoint, posting an 11-5-2 record this season. At home, the Cavaliers are 6-3-1 ATS, all of those games coming as favorites. With 4+ days of rest, UVA is 2-2-2 ATS, and they are an impressive 5-1 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under in Virginia games, hitting in 11 of 18 overall and seven of ten at home. In games with extended rest, the over has hit in four of six, while ACC matchups have trended strongly toward the under, cashing in five of six games.

Final Thoughts

This is a difficult game to handicap from a side perspective. There’s a reasonable case to be made for either team, and UNC’s inconsistency this season makes it hard to fully trust them in this spot. For that reason, I’d avoid picking a side altogether. As for the total, despite some conflicting trends, I would give a slight lean to the over in this matchup.