Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Miami Hurricanes

Date: February 10th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

After the highest of highs, the North Carolina Tar Heels will have to come back down to earth, as they travel to Miami to take on the Hurricanes with ACC play continuing on. UNC didn’t hold a lead against Duke for the entirety of the game but still managed to pull out a win by taking the lead with just milliseconds remaining on the clock. The Tar Heels are riding high, now sitting at 19-4 overall with a 7-3 record in the ACC. Facing a 37th-ranked Miami team on the road makes this yet another quad 1 matchup for the Heels, who are now 5-4 against such opponents. Through 23 games, UNC is averaging 82.6 points per game (41st in Division 1), while allowing 70.5 points per game (74th in Division 1).

Miami has put together a strong season of its own, even though they haven’t always looked ultra-dominant in spots where they might be expected to. The Hurricanes enter this contest at 18-5 overall, with a 7-3 record in ACC play. This is also a quad 1 matchup for Miami, a quadrant in which they are currently 2-3 this season. We’ve seen Miami display a balanced attack, as they are averaging 84.2 points per game (28th in Division 1), while allowing just 70 points per game (67th in Division 1). This matchup will tell us a lot about whether this UNC team can come off an extremely emotional win and continue chopping away.

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Betting Overview

There hasn’t been much line movement in this matchup, as most sportsbooks opened and have held UNC at -1.5, though some books have the Tar Heels listed as just 1-point favorites. The same can be said for the moneyline, where UNC can be found at -110 (from -118), while Miami is available at -104 (from -102). As for the total, we’ve seen a slight dip from the opening number of 158.5 down to either 156.5 or 157.5, depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

These teams are not too far apart in the KenPom ratings, with North Carolina checking in at 25th and a net rating of +22.42, while Miami sits at 41st with a net rating of +18.51. UNC continues to profile as an offense-heavy team, carrying an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.2 (18th nationally). Defensively, they’ve been solid but not quite as strong, posting an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 100.8 (48th nationally). Similar to their scoring averages, Miami remains a well-balanced team, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 118.9 (52nd nationally), along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 100.4 (42nd nationally).

Betting Trends

North Carolina has largely controlled this series over the last 10 matchups between these programs, winning 8 of the 10. Somewhat surprisingly, Miami has held the edge against the spread, covering in 6 of those contests. Totals have leaned toward the under in this series as well, with the under hitting in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

The Tar Heels come into this matchup 13-10 ATS, with a 3-3 record on the road, a 1-2 record as an away favorite, a 5-6 record with 2-3 days off, and a 5-5 record in ACC play. Totals have slightly favored the under overall, hitting in 12 of 23 games. As a road team, however, the over has hit in 5 of 6 games, including all 3 contests as an away favorite. In games with 2-3 days off, the over has hit in 6 of 11, as well as 8 of 10 games in the ACC.

Miami enters this one with a 10-11-1 ATS record, along with a 5-7-1 mark at home (all as favorites), a 7-6-1 record with 2-3 days off, and a 3-6-1 record in conference play. The over has performed well in Miami games this season, hitting in 15 of 22 contests. At home, the over has hit in 11 of 13 games, as well as 10 of 14 in games with 2-3 days off. We’ve also seen the over cash in 7 of 10 ACC games for the Hurricanes.

Final Thoughts

With the Tar Heels coming off such an emotional win in a major rivalry game, I expect a slight step back in this spot, especially with only two days of rest. Because of that, I like Miami to cover here and wouldn’t be surprised if they win outright. As for the total, I would lean toward the over, particularly given Miami’s home trends this season.