Game: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: February 28th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

One of the most anticipated ACC matchups of the season is here. On Saturday, the 11th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers travel to Durham to face the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils in a battle between the top teams in the conference.

Virginia remains red hot, riding a nine-game winning streak following its dominant victory over NC State on Tuesday. The Cavaliers enter at 25-3 overall with a 13-2 mark in ACC play. This is clearly a Quad 1 opportunity for UVA, and they are 6-2 against such opponents this season. On the year, Virginia is averaging 82.3 points per game (41st in Division I) while allowing 67.8 points per contest (29th nationally).

Duke, meanwhile, has won five straight after handling business in South Bend on Tuesday night. The Blue Devils now sit at 26-2 overall with a 14-1 record in conference play. Saturday marks Duke’s 14th Quad 1 game of the season, and they are an impressive 11-2 against Quad 1 competition. Duke is averaging 83.0 points per game (34th in Division I) while allowing just 62.9 points per contest (3rd nationally).

Even with how well Virginia has been playing, the more complete team on paper is Duke. The question is whether the Cavaliers can rise to the occasion in a hostile environment at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

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Betting Overview

Given Duke’s dominance throughout the season, the Blue Devils opened as 9.5-point favorites and have since been bet up to -10.5 at most sportsbooks. The moneyline has moved in a similar direction, with Virginia now around +525 (from +470) and Duke sitting near -690 (from -650). The total has ticked up slightly as well, opening at 137.5 and climbing to a range between 138.5 and 139.5.

KenPom Ratings

Duke has climbed to the top spot in the KenPom rankings with a +38.45 net rating. Virginia is the next-closest ACC team, currently ranked 14th with a +27.19 net rating.

The Blue Devils hold an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.6 (7th nationally) and the nation’s top adjusted defensive efficiency at 89.1. Virginia counters with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.2 (24th nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency of 96.0 (15th nationally).

Betting Trends

In recent seasons, the Duke Blue Devils have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning seven of the last 10 meetings against the Virginia Cavaliers. It’s been a similar story against the spread, with Duke covering in six of those 10 contests. Totals have leaned slightly toward the over, hitting in five of the last 10 matchups, with one push mixed in.

Virginia enters at 14-12-2 ATS, including a 5-4 record on the road and a perfect 3-0 mark as a road underdog. The Cavaliers are 11-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-7 ATS in ACC play. Totals have leaned toward the under overall, cashing in 17 of 28 games. On the road, the under has hit in five of nine contests, including two of three as an away underdog. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has connected in 13 of 19 games. In conference action, the under has hit in 10 of 15 matchups.

Duke sits at 16-12 ATS this season, posting a 6-7 record at home, all as favorites. The Blue Devils are 10-8 ATS with 2–3 days of rest and 8-7 ATS in ACC play. The under has been a strong trend in Duke games, hitting in 19 of 28 contests. At home, the under has cashed in eight of 13 games. With 2–3 days of rest, the under has connected in 13 of 18 matchups, and in conference play it has hit in nine of 15.

Final Thoughts

With the ACC regular season race potentially hinging on this result, both teams should be locked in from start to finish. As dominant as Duke has been, I expect Virginia to battle throughout and keep this contest within reach, giving them a strong chance to cover the spread. While both teams have consistently trended toward the under this season, the total feels a bit tight given the offensive firepower on the floor, so I’ll stay away from it.