Game: Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: February 11th at 7:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

Following Clemson’s successful West Coast road trip last week, they now return home to host the Virginia Tech Hokies this evening. Virginia Tech got off to a promising start this season, as they were an impressive 11-2 before conference play began. ACC competition hasn’t been as kind, as they now sit at 16-8 overall with a 5-6 record in conference play. This will be the Hokies’ 10th Quad 1 matchup of the season, and they’ve struggled in those spots, posting just a 2-7 record. Entering Wednesday night’s matchup, Virginia Tech is averaging 79.7 points per game (82nd in Division I) while allowing 74.4 points per game (168th in Division I).

Clemson, meanwhile, went 2-0 on its trip to California, extending its current winning streak to four games. The Tigers have already surpassed the 20-win mark, sitting at 20-4 overall with a 10-1 record in the ACC. Facing a 55th-ranked Virginia Tech team at home makes this a Quad 2 matchup for Clemson, and they are 6-1 against such opponents this season. Clemson is averaging 76 points per game (152nd in Division I) while allowing an impressive 64.1 points per game (7th in Division I). This game presents opportunities for both teams: Virginia Tech can notch a statement road Quad 1 win, while Clemson can further solidify itself as one of the ACC’s top contenders.

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Betting Overview

This matchup opened with Clemson as fairly significant 9.5-point favorites, and while they remain heavily favored, the line has dipped to 8.5 at most sportsbooks. The best moneyline value for Virginia Tech is +350 (Bet365; FanDuel), while Clemson sits at -400 (BetMGM). The total has ticked up slightly from the opening number of 136.5 to 137.5.

KenPom Ratings

While there is a gap between these teams in the KenPom ratings, it isn’t overwhelming. Clemson ranks 26th with a net rating of +22.08, while Virginia Tech sits 59th with a +12.88 net rating. Clemson’s identity is clear: their adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 116.6 (69th nationally) is solid, but their adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.6 (14th nationally) is where they truly excel. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, holds an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 114.6 (81st nationally) and an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 101.7 (57th nationally). This sets up what should be a defense-leaning battle, which helps explain the relatively low total.

Betting Trends

Over the years, these matchups have been fairly even, with each team winning five of the last 10 meetings, though Clemson has taken the last two. The same holds true against the spread, while totals have leaned toward the under, cashing in six of the last 10, with one push coming in 2020.

Virginia Tech enters this matchup at 12-11-1 ATS, including a 4-1-1 record on the road (all as underdogs), an 8-7 record with 2-3 days of rest, and a 5-5-1 mark in ACC play. Totals have split 12 games apiece in Hokies contests overall, and they’ve split three apiece on the road. In games with 2-3 days of rest, the under has hit in 10 of 15, as well as 6 of 11 in ACC play.

Clemson comes in at 13-9-1 ATS, with a 5-6-1 record at home (all as favorites), a 7-6-1 record with 2-3 days of rest, and a 7-3-1 mark in the ACC. Totals have heavily favored the under, cashing in 15 of 23 games. At home, the under has hit in nine of 12 contests, and it has also gone under in nine of 14 games when Clemson has had 2-3 days of rest. In ACC games, the under has hit in 8of 11.

Final Thoughts

February is often when teams reveal their true identity. Clemson has looked like a very solid team throughout the season, while Virginia Tech has shown some inconsistency at times. With that said, the spread feels a bit inflated here, which leads me to lean toward Virginia Tech covering. I would also slightly favor the under in this matchup.