The North Carolina State Wolfpack are coming off a disappointing 6-7 (3-5 ACC record) 2024 campaign, where they were ranked 24th in the AP poll to begin the season. Dave Doeren will be entering his 13th season as the head coach of the team, and will be accompanied by 1st year offensive coordinator Kurt Roper (7th season with NCSU), and 1st year defensive coordinator DJ Eliot. NCSU’s season over/under win total is currently listed at 6.5 games (over +125; under -150 per Draftkings). ESPN’s FPI currently has NC State projected to win 6.2 games.


Recruiting and Transfer Portal
As we all know, recruiting has been paramount in college football since the beginning. Now with NIL, this has exemplified the growth of the transfer portal as well. Let’s take a look at NC State’s recruiting rankings compared to other ACC teams since 2021 (rankings from 247 sports):

● 2021 (recruiting only)- 7th out of 14 ACC teams
● 2022 (overall: includes both recruiting and transfer portal)- 13th out of 14 ACC teams
● 2023 (overall)- 7th out of 14 ACC teams
● 2024 (overall)- 4th out of 17 ACC teams
● 2025 (overall)- 10th out of 17 ACC teams

This is obviously very inconsistent from a recruiting and transfer portal in a conference that hasn’t been very strong from top to bottom in recent years. The good news is that we should see a bigger impact this season from the players that were acquired in 2024 in that 4th ranked (in the ACC) recruiting/transfer portal class.

Stats to know
From last season, the Wolfpack were 56th out of 134 in the FBS in points per game on offense with 27.8, but they allowed 30.9 points per game last season on average which was 98th in the FBS. The defensive struggles were primarily caused by the poor rush defense for NC State, as they allowed 4.8 yards per carry ranking 97th in the FBS, we will see if these issues can be addressed by new defensive coordinator DJ Eliot. Offensively it was a pretty average season in comparison with the rest of the FBS, the only outlier that can be easily addressed would be the interception percentage. NC State had an interception thrown 3.42% of the time, which ranked 101st in the FBS. This will be quarterback CJ Bailey’s second season under center for the Wolfpack, and with a year of experience under his belt, and an offseason to gel with the players around him, he should bring a lot more confidence and better decision making into this season.

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2025 Schedule
NC State currently has the 42nd ranked strength of schedule in the FBS, which is 8th in the ACC. There are only 3 out of conference opponents on the schedule, compared to 4 they had from last year. They will be kicking things off with the same opponent in ECU they finished the season against last season. It appears ECU is looking to be in a down year compared to last, as the Pack are currently 12.5 point favorites in the season opener. Jumping into ACC play early, State will have UVA, Wake Forest, Duke, and Virginia Tech. Both Virginia schools will be playing at NC State, where Virginia Tech may be a slight favorite, due to their projected win total according to ESPN FPI being at 7.9, and the UVA game will likely have NC State as a slight favorite. NC State’s first 2 away games will be in the state of North Carolina, where they will see Wake Forest on a Thursday Night, then the following week they will travel to Durham to face Duke. Based on current projections, Wake is set to have a down year, while Duke is projected to be on par with this NC State team. After the 4 week in conference stretch, NC State will have Campbell, then Notre Dame on the schedule. Campbell should be an easy win for the Pack, but Notre Dame is going to be a David vs Goliath match up, and the game will also be played in South Bend, Indiana. After the trip to Notre Dame, the Wolfpack will have an off week, then travel up to Pittsburgh which will be another fairly even match up, then they will face Georgia Tech at home, which will be a tough battle. To close out the regular season, NC State travels to Miami, then hosts both Florida State, and UNC at home. NC State will need to win at least 1 if not 2 of these last 3 games if they want a chance to cover the 6.5-win total.

Closing Remarks
After coming off an underwhelming season last year for the Wolfpack, they will look to bounce back. With oddsmakers leaning in favor of the under 6.5, it’s somewhat difficult to see NC State improving from where they were last year. If CJ Bailey is able to take a step forward, and the NC State run defense is able to make their necessary improvements, we very well may see NC State reach the 7 win mark.