Game: New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Date: September 28th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

Oh boy, last week was one to forget for the New Orleans Saints, as they suffered their third loss of the season. It was a defeat many expected, and things only get tougher this week. The Saints travel from the West Coast to the East Coast to face the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. This is certainly not the bounce-back game New Orleans was hoping for, as the Bills look like a well-oiled machine.

Buffalo’s offense has been one of, if not the, best in the NFL, while the defense still has a few things to iron out. It almost feels as if the Saints will need to score on every drive just to have a shot—an exaggeration, perhaps, but it speaks to how well Josh Allen and his offense have been playing.

For the Saints, this was never a year of high expectations. Still, from a cultural perspective, New Orleans fans don’t want to see the team quit. This feels like a spot where Kellen Moore may experiment a bit, using some trial and error to see what works moving forward.

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Weather

Weather will not be a factor in this one, with temperatures in the low to mid-70s and a 0% chance of precipitation. Winds shouldn’t play a role either, averaging around 6 mph with occasional gusts up to 13 mph.

Betting Overview

This one opened with Buffalo as heavy favorites at -12.5, and the line has since moved further in their favor to -15.5. Sportsbooks are giving the Saints little chance to win, as their moneyline shifted from +470 to between +800 and +1000, while Buffalo’s moved from -650 to a range of -1300 to -2000. The total initially sat at 46.5 and has inched up to between 47.5 and 48.5, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching matchup almost isn’t fair in this one, as the Bills’ staff has been building together for years. New Orleans, meanwhile, is in a complete rebuild, with a brand-new coaching staff that is simply trying to find its identity.

DLs vs. OLs: There’s a reason why this Bills team has been competitive year in and year out. Yes, they have elite quarterback play, but one of the most overlooked aspects is how strong they are in the trenches. Buffalo’s offensive line has been a wall, and the defensive line has played well in its own right, aside from perhaps Week 1. The Bills are a bit banged up on the D-line, but this matchup isn’t remotely close.

QBs: Is this even a question? Josh Allen.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This is probably the only category where the Saints have an edge over Buffalo. Led by Demario Davis at linebacker, Alvin Kamara in the backfield, and tight end Juwan Johnson, the group has gotten off to a strong start.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This matchup is fairly close, but the Bills are marginally better on both sides of the ball. From a wide receiver perspective, the way Josh Allen distributes the ball often makes those players look better than they actually are.

Betting Trends

Going into this one, the Saints are not only 0-3 as a team, but they are also 0-3 ATS. The over has been more prominent, hitting in two of the three Saints games. Last year’s trends don’t bode well for New Orleans either, as they were 1-4 ATS in non-conference games but were an even 3-3 ATS as an away underdog. For the over/under, the under hit in three of five non-conference games and split three apiece in games where the Saints were away underdogs.

The Bills have been solid ATS so far at 2-1, and the over has hit in two of their three games. Last season, in non-conference games, Buffalo went 3-2 ATS and 6-3 as home favorites. The over followed a similar pattern, as the Bills finished last season with three overs out of five non-conference games and six overs out of nine as a home favorite.

Final Thoughts

As they say, “there are no easy games in the NFL,” but this certainly feels like one of those easy wins for the Bills. I don’t have any doubts about whether they’ll win, but as the spread currently stands, I lean slightly toward the Saints covering. For the over/under, I also lean toward the over at the current line, though if it rises closer to 49 or 50, that could be a trap.