Chicago Bears

Over the past couple of seasons, the Chicago Bears have been one of a few teams’ soul-searching, and their ATS record since 2020 certainly reflects this. Over this span, Chicago holds a record of 35-45-5 (43.8%), which is the worst ATS record and percentage in the NFC North by almost 6%. There has really only been one area you could bank on the Bears to cover, which is in games where they’ve been the home favorite, posting an 8-5-2 record (61.5%). While there obviously hasn’t been much to rely on with the Bears, there have been plenty of areas to fade them over the last 5 seasons. The spots where the Bears have been the team to fade on a somewhat regular basis are in games with a rest disadvantage: 2-9-0 (18.2%), division games: 10-19-1 (34.5%), and games as an away underdog: 15-25-1 (37.5%). There is a new era in Chicago under head coach Ben Johnson, so it will be interesting to see if the culture shift, he brings will affect this ATS record.

Detroit Lions

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There has been one team over the past 5 seasons in particular that has been the team to tail, and it has been the Detroit Lions. With not only the best ATS record in the NFC North but also the best ATS record in the NFL by a sizable margin, the Lions have posted a 56-32-0 (63.6%) record since 2020. With how strong their ATS record is, there hasn’t been a single category since 2020 where the Lions have fallen below 50%. The areas where the Lions have found the most consistent success covering have been in games with a rest advantage: 14-4-0 (77.8%), games as an away favorite: 12-4-0 (75%), and games within the division: 20-10-0 (66.7%). The culture Dan Campbell has created in Detroit is one where his teams show no mercy, and this has been evident in their ATS records and trends.

Green Bay Packers

While not quite as strong as the Lions, the Green Bay Packers also have a very solid ATS record since 2020, holding a mark of 51-39-0 (56.7%). The Packers have been particularly strong as an underdog, maintaining a 21-10-0 record (67.7%) in that category, with a 6-2-0 record (75%) as a home underdog and a 15-7-0 record (68.2%) as an away underdog (the missing game being a neutral site contest). The Packers have also been very reliable as the home team overall, with a 27-17-0 record (61.4%). The only area where Green Bay has struggled somewhat is in games as the away favorite, where they’ve gone 8-11-0 (42.1%). With the NFC North becoming increasingly competitive, it will be interesting to see if this strong ATS record levels out.

Minnesota Vikings

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The Minnesota Vikings have been a fairly strong team over the last 5 seasons, but the sportsbooks have been sharp on them, making them arguably the hardest team to gauge in the NFC North. Minnesota’s ATS record since 2020 is 40-41-5 (49.4%), just 1 cover short of an even 50%. The areas where the Vikings have been especially strong are in games as the away favorite: 10-5-3 (66.7%), games as a home underdog: 7-4-0 (63.6%), and games against AFC opponents: 14-8-2 (63.6%). The trends that have contributed to their sub-50% cover rate have been games with a rest disadvantage: 4-7-1 (36.4%), games as the home favorite: 10-17-0 (37%), and games following a loss: 14-18-2 (43.8%).