Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears held the weakest over record in the NFC North since 2020 but compared to the rest of the league it wasn’t too bad at 41-44-0 (48.2%). Considering how inconsistent the Bears have been during this span; it’s impressive how close sportsbooks have come to 50% on their over/under lines. For overs, the only notable trend has been games where Chicago faced a rest disadvantage: 8-3-0 record (72.7%). On the other hand, unders have appeared most often following a win: 17-11-0 record (60.7%), in games with a rest advantage: 9-6-0 record (60.0%), and as a home underdog: 15-11-0 record (57.7%). With new head coach Ben Johnson and year two of Caleb Williams under center, it will be interesting to see if sportsbooks continue to overvalue the Bears’ offense and undervalue their defense.

Detroit Lions

Embed from Getty Images

Since 2020, Detroit Lions games have been the most consistent in hitting the over across the entire NFL, finishing with a record of 50-38-0 (56.8%). There are several key spots where overs have been especially reliable, most notably in games with a rest advantage: 14-4-0 record (77.8%), as a home favorite: 18-8-0 record (69.2%), within the division: 19-11-0 (63.3%), and following a win: 27-17-0 (61.4%). The only notable category where the over has barely cleared 50% has been in road games: 21-22-0 record (51.2%). Given how consistently Detroit contests have trended toward overs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see some regression this season as sportsbooks adjust.

Green Bay Packers

With percentages similar to Chicago, the Green Bay Packers’ over/under results have hovered right around 50%, with 46 games going over, 43 going under, and 1 push (51.7% over; 48.3% under). The encouraging part is that the Packers show strong trends on both the over and under side. For overs, results have been most consistent in games with a rest disadvantage: 13-5-0 record (72.2%), in division matchups: 20-10-0 record (66.7%), and following a win: 32-23-1 record (58.2%). On the under side, trends have been most notable with a rest advantage: 14-8-0 record (63.6%), against AFC opponents: 15-9-0 record (62.5%), and after a loss: 18-11-0 record (62.1%).

Minnesota Vikings

Not far behind the Detroit Lions, the Minnesota Vikings have also been very consistent in hitting the over. Since 2020, the Vikings have gone over 48 times, under 37 times, with 1 push (56.5% overs; 43.5% unders). Overs have been most consistent when Minnesota is a home favorite: 18-8-1 record (69.2%), as an away underdog: 15-7-0 record (68.2%), in divisional games: 20-10-0 record (66.7%), and within the conference: 38-24-0 record (61.3%). Unders have only shown up somewhat consistently in two areas—games as an away favorite: 11-7-0 record (61.1%), and against AFC opponents: 13-10-1 record (56.5%). The good news is the Vikings retain strong coaching continuity, though we have yet to see how JJ McCarthy performs in a regular season setting.