Atlanta Falcons

Experts and sportsbooks alike have had trouble gauging the outlook for the Atlanta Falcons over the past couple of years. In the last 5 years, they have been overvalued fairly significantly, resulting in the worst ATS record in the NFC South, with a record of 33-49-2 (40.2%). Given that the Falcons’ cover percentage is nearly 10% below 50% since 2020, there hasn’t been much to pull from in terms of trends for Atlanta covering. Their best positive trend came in games where they held a rest advantage, posting a record of 7-4-0 (63.6%). Where the Falcons struggled most against the spread (and it was in many areas) was as the home favorite: 8-19-0 record (29.6%), after a win: 10-21-1 record (32.3%), with equal rest: 18-36-2 (33.3%), and in non-division games: 19-33-2 (36.5%). This season will be Atlanta’s first full year under QB Michael Penix Jr., so it will be interesting to see if these trends continue.

Carolina Panthers

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The Carolina Panthers have certainly had several seasons to forget since 2020, and while their ATS record has not been quite as poor as Atlanta’s, it still is not very strong. Throughout this span, Carolina has posted a record of 35-47-2 (42.7%). Unsurprisingly, there aren’t many areas to highlight on the positive side for the Panthers, but their most notable category above 50% came in games as a home underdog, where they had a 15-14-1 record (51.7%). This is obviously not a strong trend for either side, but there are clearly more areas where the Panthers have been the team to fade. The biggest spots to fade the Panthers were in games as the favorite: 3-13-0 (18.8%), games with a rest disadvantage: 2-6-0 (25%), games with a rest advantage: 5-10-0 (33.3%), and games outside the division: 21-32-1 (39.6%).

New Orleans Saints

This season marks a new era in New Orleans, and it will be tough to judge this team, especially early on, when it comes to betting the spread. That said, it is still important to review historical trends for any team, and since 2020 the Saints hold a record of 39-46-1 (45.9%) ATS. This record places them second in the NFC South over this span, behind only Tampa Bay. New Orleans has been respectable in covering games in certain spots, most notably as an away underdog: 12-8-0 (60%), and in games within the division: 17-13-1 (56.7%). There have also been plenty of trends where the Saints have failed to cover, including games as a home underdog: 5-12-0 (29.4%), games against AFC opponents: 9-15-0 (37.5%), and games as an away favorite: 8-13-1 (38.1%) (though they likely won’t be an away favorite this year).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Coming in with the best ATS record in the NFC South since 2020 and a cover rate just slightly above 50%, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold a record of 48-45-1 (51.6%). The biggest areas where the Bucs found the most success were in games with a rest advantage: 9-4-1 (69.2%), games as an away underdog: 12-6-0 (66.7%), and games with a rest disadvantage: 12-8-0 (60%). The only two areas of real significance where Tampa has struggled were in games as the away favorite: 12-16-0 (42.9%), and games with equal rest: 27-33-0 (45%). Most of the other trends are very close to 50%, making Tampa Bay an overall difficult team to bet on or against. Last year was still their best ATS record across this 5-season span, however.