Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons have undergone numerous changes since 2020, making it difficult for sportsbooks to consistently set over/unders on their games. This has resulted in far more unders, with 35 overs, 49 unders, and 0 pushes during this span (41.7% overs; 58.3% unders). Only one category has produced more than 50% overs for Atlanta: games against division opponents, where they posted a 16-14-0 record (53.3%). On the other hand, several strong trends have pointed to the under, most notably in games vs. AFC opponents: 19-5-0 record (79.2%), as a home underdog: 10-4-0 record (71.4%), with a rest disadvantage: 12-5-0 record (70.6%), and following a win: 20-12-0 record (62.5%). The Falcons appear to have more stability heading into this season, though that can change quickly in the NFL, and it remains to be seen if sportsbooks adjust accordingly.

Carolina Panthers

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The Carolina Panthers are coming off an impressive season for overs, finishing 13-4-0 (76.5%), though their overall over record since 2020 sits just below 50% at 41-42-1 (49.4%). There have been some favorable trends for the over during this stretch, including games where the Panthers had a rest advantage: 11-4-0 record (73.3%), games with a rest disadvantage: 5-3-0 record (62.5%), and games as an away underdog: 22-15-0 record (59.5%). Conversely, the strongest under trends have come in games where Carolina was a home underdog: 17-12-1 record (58.6%), with equal rest: 35-25-1 record (58.3%), and as the favorite: 9-7-0 record (56.3%). With an improving offense and a somewhat stagnant defense, the Panthers could be primed for more overs this season.

New Orleans Saints

Another NFC South team that has been difficult for sportsbooks to gauge due to inconsistent offensive play is the New Orleans Saints, who hold an over record of 37-49-0 since 2020 (43.0%). Similar to the Falcons, they’ve had only one over trend above 50% during this span, which came in games with equal rest: 29-25-0 record (53.7%). The under has been far more prevalent for New Orleans, especially in games with a rest advantage: 12-3-0 record (80.0%), with a rest disadvantage: 12-5-0 record (70.6%), as an away underdog: 13-7-0 record (65.0%), following a win: 26-15-0 record (63.4%), and against AFC opponents: 15-9-0 record (62.5%). With even more uncertainty surrounding the Saints’ offense entering this season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these trends continue.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

To round out the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit in the division’s second slot when it comes to their over record. Since 2020, Buccaneers games have produced 46 overs, 48 unders, and 0 pushes, for an over percentage of 48.9%. The most consistent over results have come in games where the Bucs were an away underdog: 12-6-0 record (66.7%), in divisional matchups: 18-13-0 record (58.1%), games with a rest advantage: 8-6-0 record (57.1%), and against AFC opponents: 14-11-0 record (56.0%). On the flip side, the strongest under trends have occurred in games as a home underdog: 9-4-0 record (69.2%), following a loss: 20-13-0 record (60.6%), as an away favorite: 16-12-0 record (57.1%), and with a rest disadvantage: 11-9-0 record (55.0%). If Tampa’s offense continues on its current trajectory, we may see more overs this season, depending on the opponent.