Heading into NFL Week 5, the Bills are 4-0 and have emerged as the Super Bowl favorites at +380.
But as VSiN’s Matt Youmans points out, three of those wins were against the league’s worst teams — the Jets, Saints and Dolphins with a combined record of 1-11. And then there was that comeback win vs. the Ravens, who are 1-3.
Which brings us to the Bills’ game tonight (8:20 ET, NBC) vs. the AFC East rival Patriots (+7.5/+8).
Writes Matt:
To beat the Bills or at least cover the number, the Patriots need to control the run. Buffalo’s James Cook has surpassed 100 yards rushing in three consecutive games, and Allen is always a running threat. Allen has 1,123 total yards (964 passing, 159 rushing) and 10 total touchdowns (seven passing, three rushing). Again, it’s important to remember those numbers compiled by Allen and Cook were against four weak defenses.
It’s foolish to think Mike Vrabel’s defense can shut down the Bills because that’s not happening. But Vrabel’s defense can do enough to give the Patriots a shot to pull the upset. Drake Maye will need to do his part to move the ball and get some help from rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Stefon Diggs, who will be fired up to face his former team.
>>Matt’s Best Bet on this game and more.
Matt is the proprietor of the Circa Friday Football Invitational, so I would add that the Patriots-Bills game was the most popular game played by contestants and the Patriots +7.5 was the most popular pick.
Jim Feist: Patriots (+7.5)
Jeff Petch: Patriots (+7.5)
Weston Stradtman: Patriots (+7.5)
Cris Zeniuk: Patriots (+7.5)
Jason Jarvis: Patriots (+7.5)
Paul Bovi: Patriots (+7.5)
Chris Macero: Patriots (+7.5)
Mike North: Bills (-7.5)
Jim Feist: OVER (49)
Paul Bovi: OVER (49)
>>Go here for all of the contest picks and standings.
All of our Best Bets columns:
We have two new resources to help you with player props:
Opta AI Player Projections: VSiN has partnered with Opta AI to produce QB, RB and WR projections. You can compare the projections to the DraftKings Sportsbook prop lines to find value. Sort by stats and biggest differences between the projection and the line. >>Go here.
As of Saturday night, here were the biggest deltas between actual line and projection for the top categories:
Embed from Getty ImagesPatrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Under 248.5 passing yards (Projection -49.5)
Saquon Barkley, Eagles: Under 81.5 rushing yards (-22.71)
Parker Washington, Jaguars: Over 16.5 receiving yards (+35.18)
Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool: We have a sortable chart showing how wide receivers match up against cornerbacks each week. It highlights where WRs line up, who’s covering them and whether the matchup is favorable. You can use it to find edges in player props, game totals and parlays. >>Go here.
Plus we still have the NFL Prop Analyzer.
Check out our NFL Week 5 Hub with stories and resources, including First TD handicapping and player prop advice from Adam Burke and kicking props from Pauly Howard.
Week 5 resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
Rams’ loss eliminates 28.4% of Survivor field
As they are every week, the consensus picks for the three Circa contests were revealed Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Survivor: The Rams’ OT loss to the 49ers on Thursday night eliminated 3,524 entries as the top pick (28.4 percent of the field). Throw in five no-picks and that leaves 8,875 entries heading into today’s games.
>Circa Grandissimo: The $100,000-per-entry contest wasn’t immune from the TNF carnage. The Rams’ loss eliminated 15 entries, leaving 40 heading into today’s action. The Cardinals (vs. the Titans) are the top pick with 20 on them.
>Circa Million: The Chargers (-2.5 vs. the Commanders) are the top pick with 2,018 entries on them. The Lions (-10 at the Bengals) are second with 1,680, followed by the Seahawks (-3.5 vs. the Bucs) are third with 1,469.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
ALDS Best Bets
Greg Peterson has picks for both games today — Yankees at Blue Jays (4:08 ET, Fox) and Tigers at Mariners (8:03 ET, Fox).
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
MLB resources
Quick Hits
Horse Racing: “Mr. Ed” Sehon offers his picks for today’s Keeneland card.
1/ST BET and VSiN have teamed up with an exclusive offer for horse-racing and sports-betting fans. Open and deposit into a new 1/ST BET account and get up to a $250 sign-up bonus with promo code VSIN250. Then, place $100 in wagers within your first 30 days and you’ll unlock a full year of VSiN Pro — a $240 value. Already a VSiN subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription for another year — free. This offer ends Friday, October 5, so don’t wait! Sign up today.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for today’s race on the roval at Charlotte and shared his picks:
Top 5: Van Gisbergen, Larson, Allmendinger, Reddick, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider: Gibbs, Allmendinger, Buescher, McDowell, Briscoe
Favorites to struggle: Keselowski, Logano, Hamlin, Chastain
>Adam Burke‘s race preview with more analysis from Steve.
EPL: VSiN soccer analyst Nigel Seeley has his top plays for the weekend Premier League menu.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis has posted 32 team previews on our NHL page. The season starts Tuesday.
The post NFL Week 5 Best Bets & Circa Contest Picks appeared first on VSiN.
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