As Dave Feldman — the late, great horse racing handicapper from my Chicago newspaper days — would say, “When you play in the mud, you get dirty.”
And it didn’t necessarily have to be raining when he said that.
Maybe that’s why I don’t get bettors’ fascination with a game featuring two of the NFL’s worst teams playing in bad weather.
Yet the most popular pick in the Circa Friday Football Invitational and the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest is the Browns -2.5 over the Dolphins in rainy and windy Cleveland. (Adam Burke breaks down the selections for the Average Joe.) And the Browns were the second most popular pick in Circa Million.
Kevin Roth, VSiN’s favorite betting weatherman, expects the worst of the high winds will hit Cleveland before the 1 p.m. ET start, but check his X account today for the latest forecast.
Here are our Best Bets columns (and a few of them bite on the battle of 1-5 teams):
Programming reminder: Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard kick off our live programming at 9 a.m. ET with the VSiN Pro Football Tailgate Show, Their guests include Warren Sharp, Dr. David Chao and John Hansen.
Dr. Chao sent me his latest update on injuries to watch. FYI: The Cardinals are planning to start Jacoby Brissett vs. the Packers over the injured Kyler Murray (foot).
I checked our Opta AI player prop projections for the biggest differences between the DraftKings line and the AI projection. Same players as yesterday’s newsletter, but updated numbers.
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Under 258.5 passing yards at DK (Opta AI at -46.93)
- Quinshon Judkins, Browns: Under 89.5 rushing yards (-23.45)
- Jalen Nailor, Vikings: Over 16.5 receiving yards (+25.30)
Zach uses our prop tools to come up with some plays for your consideration.
Everything we posted on NFL Week 7 is here.
Other NFL Week 7 resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits
>Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool
VSiN Pro subscribers have access to the plays from hosts and guests on our NFL picks page.
Contest Corner: Chiefs get the vote
As they are every week, the consensus picks for the three Circa contests were revealed Saturday night on The Football Contest Show (9-10 ET):
>Circa Survivor: The Chiefs (-12 vs. the Raiders) are the No. 1 choice with 1,279 entries, just ahead of the Patriots (-7 vs. the Titans) with 1,249. The Steelers’ loss on TNF eliminated 181 entries and there were four no-picks, leaving 4,233 heading into today’s action.
>Circa Grandissimo: The Chiefs are also the top pick with 12 entries. One apiece on the Patriots, Broncos and Lions.
>Circa Million: The Lions -5.5 vs. the Bucs is the top pick with 1,655 entries, just ahead of the Browns -2.5 vs. the Dolphins with 1,648. FYI: The top 5 consensus picks in the Million are 9-21 (30%) through six weeks.
Check out our contest hub for complete consensus picks and individual selections.
MLB Playoffs: Mariners go for clincher
The Dodgers are in.
The Mariners are +106 underdogs, but can join them tonight (8:03 ET, FS1) with a Game 6 victory vs. the Blue Jays (-118).
Greg Peterson isn’t ready to write off the Blue Jays just yet.
Adam Burke will file his Best Bets and Steve Makinen will have his Analytics Report later this morning.
(Get an alert when they file by signing up for VSiN’s push notifications.)
Quick Hits
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
NBA: The VSiN NBA Betting Guide is ready for download. The season starts Tuesday.
Horse Racing: VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon has picks for today’s Keeneland menu.
1/ST BET and VSiN have teamed up with an exclusive offer for horse-racing and sports-betting fans. Open and deposit into a new 1/ST BET account and get up to a $250 sign-up bonus with promo code VSIN250. Then, place $100 in wagers within your first 30 days and you’ll unlock a full year of VSiN Pro — a $240 value. Already a VSiN subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription for another year — free. Sign up today.
NASCAR: Steve Makinen has posted his final simulation for today’s race at Talladega and shared his picks:
Top 5: Blaney, Cindric, Beuscher, Logano, Briscoe
Top underdogs to consider: Preece, Beuscher, Berry, Custer, Gilliland, Gragson
Favorites to struggle: Hamlin, Keselowski, Elliott, Bowman, Larson
>Adam Burke‘s race preview with more analysis from Steve.
The post NFL Week 7 Betting: Best Bets & Circa Contest Picks appeared first on VSiN.
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