Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers (-150, 6.5) Florida leads the Series 2-1 8 p.m. ET I can go into a deep dive and break down the series and share my thoughts on why the Panthers are up two games to one or why the Oilers trail the series. I can tell you that momentum doesn’t carry over from game to game in the playoffs but from shift to shift (so say NHL players and coaches), so I don’t consider the Panthers 6-1 thumping of the Oilers in Game Three very meaningful as I put together my best bets for Game Four of the Stanley Cup Final. Also, keep in mind that Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner is “Mr. Game Four.” He is 6-0 with two shutouts, having given up one goal or less in four of the six wins and two goals or less in five of the six. Four of the six wins Edmonton won by three goals or more. Skinner’s Game Four numbers go hand in hand with my overall approach to playing the puck line. I will take both teams to cover the puck line (-1.5 goals). With the Panthers’ 6-1 win in Game Three, 12 of the last 14 and 21 of the last 25 Stanley Cup playoff games have been decided by two or more goals. If that trend continues in Game Four, we are guaranteed a profit (see below with the odds). I also love my player props. Props such as shots on goal and blocked shots have less to do with which teams win and lose the game. Player, goal, points and assists props are far more tied into the outcome of the game, so I will continue to focus on riding the hot hand and look for value. Let’s start with the Edmonton Oilers and their defensemen. Evan Bouchard (9,8,7) has a ridiculous 24 shots on goal in the first three games of the series, almost twice as many as teammate Connor McDavid (15), who is second on the team in that category. Mattias Ekholm has had at least two blocked shots in nine of his last 10 games. Corey Perry has goals in back-to-back games, and his nine in the playoffs is one behind team leader Leon Draisaitl (10). Bet365 has the best price (+300) that I have been able to find for Perry just to score a goal. Both Perry and Draisaitl have scored the Oilers’ first goal on enemy ice three times in the playoffs (not the first goal of the game), and FanDuel offers good prices on this prop (see below). Draisaitl has also scored the last goal of the game three times in this year’s playoffs. When examining the best player props for the Panthers, there are a handful of names that come to mind. Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand each have four goals in the series. Bennett leads all goal scorers in the playoffs with 14. Bet365 has the best price that I have found to score a goal. I will also target Bennett to score the last goal of the game, something he has done four times in the postseason. There are multiple ways to play Marchand scoring props. Instead of playing him just to earn a point (-120), I will play him for both a goal and an assist (both at plus money) instead of laying any “juice.” Evan Rodrigues is tied with Matthew Tkachuk for the team lead in assists, and at (+168, FanDuel), he is far better value than Tkachuk (-113). Finally, I am not sure which would be tougher to answer. Who leads Florida in assists in the Cup Final or who is the Panthers’ backup goalie? The answers: Nate Schmidt leads Florida with five assists, and Vitek Vanecek is the goalie wearing the baseball cap on the Florida bench. Not all sites are offering a Schmidt assist prop, but I did find it at Bet365. Game Four Predictions: Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals (+285) -.25 units Florida Panthers -1.5 goals (+164) -.25 units Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 SOG (-190) – 2 units Evan Bouchard Over 3.5 SOG (+120) – 1 unit Evan Bouchard Over 4.5 SOG (+300) – .50 units Mattias Ekholm Over -1.5 SOG (-150) – .20 units Corey Perry anytime goal (+300) – .10 units Corey Perry 1 st Edmonton goal of the game (+900) – .10 units Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+125) – .10 units Leon Draisaitl 1 st Edmonton goal of the game (+390) -. 10 units Leon Draisaitl last goal of the game (+900) – .10 units Brad Marchand anytime goal (+300) – .10 units Brad Marchand Over ½ assist (+190) – .10 units Evan Rodrigues Over ½ assist (+168) – .20 units Nate Schmidt Over ½ assist (+250) – .20 units Sam Bennett anytime goal (+190) – .10 units Sam Bennett last goal of the game (+1200) – .10 units The post NHL Predictions: Expert Picks on Thursday, June 12 appeared first on VSiN .