Game: UNC Tar Heels at UCF Knights

Date: September 20th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

The North Carolina Tar Heels head down to Orlando, Florida, to take on the UCF Knights after turning things around following a rough Week 1 start. While the Tar Heels have gotten back over .500, they haven’t been playing the strongest opponents, so it will be interesting to see how they perform against an equal or better team. UCF, through their first two games, is 2-0 and will be playing their first Power 4 game of the season. Both teams should have a strong grasp on both sides of the ball for how they’ll look the rest of the season, and this game will certainly be a benchmark before heading into conference play.

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Weather

As it currently stands, there is a 51% chance of thunderstorms at 3:00 PM ET in Orlando, which could cause a delay in this one. It will also be on the warmer side, with temperatures in the low 90s before dipping into the mid to high 80s throughout the game. Wind may also play a role, with averages around 12 mph and gusts up to 25 mph.

Betting Overview

This game opened with UCF at -3.5 but has moved to a touchdown favorite. The moneyline has also shifted noticeably, from +170 for UNC to between +202 and +225, and for UCF from -205 to between -250 and -275 depending on the book. The total has dropped from the original line of 50.5 to between 46.5 and 47.5, also depending on the book.

UNC is 2-1 ATS this season, with their only failed cover coming in their Week 1 home loss. This is their first road appearance as an underdog, though they are 1-0 ATS on the road so far. The over/under has leaned toward the under, with two of UNC’s three games finishing below the total.

UCF, despite playing two games, has had only one with a spread, which they failed to cover. They have had totals for both games, with the under hitting in the first and the over in the second. In fact, UCF would have covered the over on their own against NC A&T.

Power Ratings

Both the ESPN FPI and the SP+ power ratings have UCF significantly ahead of North Carolina. On the other hand, Sagarin has North Carolina narrowly ahead of UCF heading into this matchup.

Final Thoughts

I’m not sold on either of these teams, especially defensively. While both defenses may have looked good against inferior opponents, facing an offense that is equal or better could lead to plenty of points. I also expect this to be a close game throughout.