Game: North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Date: November 15th at 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: The CW Network

This week marks the beginning of the home stretch for the UNC Tar Heels, as they close the season with three straight in-state matchups. They’ll kick things off with a trip to Winston-Salem to face Wake Forest. After last week’s home win against Stanford, the Tar Heels sit at 4-5 overall with a 2-3 record in ACC play. Much like previous weeks, the UNC offense continues to struggle, ranking near the bottom nationally with 291.5 yards per game (128th in FBS) and 16.8 points per game (127th). On the flip side, the defense has completely turned things around, allowing just 336.1 yards per game (32nd) and 23.3 points per game (45th).

Wake Forest has been strong for most of the season, aside from a few hiccups, and after last week’s upset win at UVA, they sit at 6-3 with a 3-3 ACC record. Offensively, they’ve been below average, posting 333.6 yards per game (101st) and 21 points per game (101st). However, their defense has been much more reliable, giving up only 336.3 yards per game (33rd) and 21.6 points per game (30th). With bowl eligibility already secured, the pressure is squarely on UNC, who still need two wins to reach that mark.

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Weather 

Even with this game being played in the evening, conditions should be quite comfortable, with temperatures in the low 60s. Rain isn’t expected, with only an 11% chance of precipitation, and winds should remain mild, averaging around 6 mph with gusts up to 13 mph.

Betting Overview

This line has shifted slightly further in favor of Wake Forest, opening at -5.5 and now sitting between -6 and -6.5 at most books. The moneyline has remained steady, with UNC listed around +188 and Wake Forest at -218. The total has also held firm, opening and staying at 38.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: Wake Forest is rated at 66th, receiving 0.5 points from the FBS average, while the Tar Heels are at 88th receiving 5.1.  Factoring in home field advantage, this model aligns closely with the current line of Wake -6.5.
  • SP+: This model is slightly higher on Wake with them at 65th actually giving 2 points to the FBS average, while UNC is further down the list at 92nd receiving 4.8 points from the FBS average.  Based on SP+, Wake Forest would be slightly stronger favorites than the current spread suggests.

Betting Trends

North Carolina has been solid against the spread this season with a 5-4 record. They’ve also performed well on the road, going 3-1 overall and 2-1 as an away underdog. Within the ACC, the Tar Heels are 3-2 ATS. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 7 of 9 games, including all 4 away matchups and 4 of 5 conference games.

Wake Forest has also been strong ATS with a 6-3 record overall. At home, however, things have been a bit less consistent, as they sit at 3-2, including 1-1 as a home favorite. In ACC play, the Demon Deacons are 4-2 ATS. The under has been the more frequent outcome, cashing in 5 of 9 total games. At home, it’s hit in 3 of 5 contests, including 2 of 3 as a home favorite. In conference play, over/unders have split evenly at 3 apiece.

Final Thoughts

This matchup is a tough one to call from a betting standpoint. North Carolina enters on a two-game winning streak but Wake Forest has shown more consistency throughout the season and has fared better against stronger opponents. Given that, I lean slightly toward Wake Forest covering the spread, while staying away from the total.