Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:

Here are my picks for Sunday’s Olympic Hockey action.

Switzerland (1-1) vs Czechia (1-1)

Switzerland (+120) vs Czechia (-142) – Total 5.5 (Under, -165)

6:10 a.m. ET

The winner of this game will earn the higher seed moving into the qualifying playoff round. For me, that team is the Czech Republic. I am seeing the full game total in some spots at 4.5 goals (-160). FanDuel is offering a flat 5 (-140), and many spots have the game total at 5.5 juiced to the Under (-160). I am going to target the Czech Team Total at Over 2.5 (-120). I believe we get at least three goals, and with Czechia entering Sunday’s game with a negative goal differential, I see them trying to play a more up-tempo game and, in turn, look to generate more offense. 

I will post goal props for the Czech Republic later tonight, but there is one Swiss goal prop that I have already jumped on, and that is Damien Riat. This is why I say shop around. At DraftKings he is (+950), and at other books, he is (+500). Riat is likely to take the spot of Kevin Fiala, who suffered an injury in the loss to Canada on Friday and will be lost not only to Switzerland for the remainder of the Olympics but for the Los Angeles Kings as well for the regular season and playoffs if the Kings finish as one of the top eight teams in the Western Conference.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Czechia Team Total Over 2.5 (-120) – 1 unit
Damien Riat anytime goal (+950) – .10 units
David Pastrnak anytime goal (+115) – .25 units
Martin Necas anytime goal (+195) – .15 units
Ondrej Palat anytime goal (+290) – .05 units

Canada (2-0) vs France (0-2)

Embed from Getty Images

Canada (-20000) vs France (+3500) – Total 7.5 (Under, -122)

10:40 a.m. ET

Okay, so how do we wager on a game with Canada being a favorite of (-20000) and a total of 7.5? Canada has surrendered just one goal in their last four-plus games at the Olympics with NHL players, so we will likely need Canada to score at least seven goals on Sunday against France, if not eight, for the Over to cash our bet. I say, why not? France gave up six goals to the Czech Republic and four goals to Switzerland. Both those countries don’t have the firepower that Canada has stacked through their roster. 

Here’s why I believe Canada shows no mercy to France in this game, and it has everything to do with the tiebreakers. Both Canada and the United States are tied in points. If both countries can win their games in regulation on Sunday, then the top seed will be awarded to the country with the best goal differential (Canada currently is +9, USA is +7). If both teams are tied in that category, then total goals scored are next to decide the higher seed. Canada has scored nine goals, and USA has scored 11 goals. If both teams finish tied in the goals scored category, the deciding factor is the country’s 2020 IIHF Men’s hockey world ranking, where Canada was ranked number one. 

A couple of player props on my bingo card for this game. I will be on Macklin Celebrini anytime goal. The best line I have found so far is at FanDuel (+100), but I will continue to shop around. I will also be on a Celebrini first period goal (+420) and a Connor McDavid first period goal (+310). Both props I found at Fan Duel, but I will continue to shop around.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Over 7.5 (+100) – 1 unit
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal (+100) – .50 units
Macklin Celebrini 1st period goal (+420) – .05 units
Connor McDavid 1st period goal (+310) – .15 units

Germany (1-1) vs USA (2-0) 

Germany (+1.5, +250) vs USA (-1.5, -340) – Total 6.5 (Over, -115)

3:10 p.m. ET

I didn’t like what I saw from Team USA in their 6-3 win over Denmark on Saturday, and it goes beyond the subpar performance of goalie Jeremy Swayman. Maybe they were looking past Denmark and ahead to Sunday’s game against Germany but their was little if no intensity from the Americans who found themselves down 1-0 and 2-1 in the opening 20 minutes before scoring three unanswered goals in the middle period, only to see Denmark score with less than three seconds left in the second period to bring the Danes to within one goal. 

Team USA is not only looking to win their group (B) but also earn the top overall seed for the quarterfinal round. To do so, they will need a similar goal output like Saturday against Denmark, but they are going to have to cut down on the goals given up. I would expect Connor Hellebuyck, who gave up one goal to Latvia on Thursday, to be between the pipes on Sunday. Germany can win Group B and advance to the quarterfinal round if they defeat Team USA in regulation. I like goals in this game and will play the Over 6.5. There are also a lot of player props that have my attention. Leon has 21 goals in 30 games versus Hellebuyck. JJ Peterka has two goals in the five games he has faced Hellebuyck.

On the USA side, Brady Tkachuk scored in each of the two games and is tied with Brock Nelson for the team lead in goals (two). Tkachuk has two goals in four games against the expected German starting goalie, Philipp Grubauer (Colorado). Nelson has three goals in eight career games vs Grubauer, including one this season. Matt Boldy (Minnesota) scored his first goal of the Olympics on Saturday. He has four goals in six NHL games against Grubauer. As always, shop around. The prices below are from FanDuel. I will look for better prices later this evening and will post anything I find.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Over 6.5 (-115) – 1 unit
Leon Draisaitl anytime goal (+220) – .25 units
Tim Stutzle anytime goal (+330) – .15 units
JJ Peterka anytime goal (+350) – .05 units
Jack Hughes anytime goal (+275) – .15 units
Matt Boldy anytime goal (+200) – .15 units
Brock Nelson anytime goal (+310) – .15 unit
Brady Tkachuk anytime goal (+145) -.15 units

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