Olympic Hockey Predictions: Expert Picks on Sunday, February 22

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:

Here are my picks for Sunday’s Olympic Hockey Gold Medal game.

USA vs. Canada

USA (+102) vs Canada (-122) – Total 5 (Over, -140)

8:10 am ET

The matchup that the hockey world has been waiting for (at least in North America) since the two nations met in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Sunday will mark 46 years to the day that USA shocked the world at the Olympics and upset the Soviet Union at Lake Placid. How big is this game for Canadians? Alcohol laws in multiple provinces adjusted to allow service as early as 5 a.m. 

Team USA is better equipped to defeat Canada than they were at the 4 Nations last year. Defenseman Quinn Hughes missed the entire tournament due to injury. Charlie McAvoy was injured earlier in the tournament and missed the Championship game. Hughes one goal and seven points lead the Americans. His brother Jack, who struggled in the 4 Nations, is tied for the team lead in goals (three) and his six points, just one back of his brother. 

Like Team USA, Canada’s lineup has been bolstered by a player who they did not have at the 4 Nations: Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini was just three years old when Sidney Crosby scored the “Golden Goal” for Canada at the Vancouver Olympics (2010). He leads Canada with five goals. Only Connor McDavid (13) has more points than the 10 by Celebrini. In Canada’s semi-final win, he led all Canadian players in time on ice (25:53) and all players with eight shots on goal. 

The status of Sidney Crosby, who missed the semi-final game with a lower-body injury, remains in doubt. Regarding Crosby, Team Canada head coach Jon Cooper said, “We’ll see, I watched him skate today (Saturday). I haven’t spoken to him yet. We’re going to meet tonight and have a determination of what’s going to happen tomorrow. He won’t put himself in harm’s way; he’s not going to put the team in harm’s way. Obviously, we’d love to have him, but that determination will be made tonight.’’ Cooper confirmed that defenseman Josh Morrissey will not play.

While Team USA has seen marked improvement since the start of the preliminary round, Canada has struggled since winning its first three games of the preliminary round. Canada has allowed a first-period goal in four consecutive games and has trailed for over a combined 55 minutes in their past two elimination games. Special teams have sparked Canada, going seven for 16 with the extra man, including three power play goals in the past two games. They will be up against a tough Team USA who is 18 for 18 on the penalty kill. 

I have an “in-pocket” wager on Canada to win the Gold Medal, so I am laying off a wager on either side. This game is a “coin flip” in my eyes, so strictly from a value standpoint, there is value on USA at plus money. When it comes to the total, shop around. If you like the Over 5 goals (as I do), FanDuel offers Over 5 at (-140). If you like Under, then shop around for the best price, as the “juice” varies from book to book. I decided to play Both Teams to Score 2 goals (-120) instead of playing the Over five goals and reduce “the tax.”

As for player props, I am going to spread it out and keep those plays small. On the USA side, Jack Eichel is second on Team USA with two goals and leads all USA players with 22 shots on goal. He has six goals in nine games against Connor Hellebuyck. Dylan Larkin scored goals in back-to-back games. Auston Matthews, who has been buzzing for the United States, has four goals in nine games against Binnington.

For Canada, I am going to stick with the big three and Mark Stone. Celebrini has two goals in three games against Connor Hellebuyck (one this season), Nathan MacKinnon has 14 goals in 26 games, and Connor McDavid has 11 goals in 32 games (one this season) vs. the USA and Winnipeg Jets netminder. Mark Stone has five goals in nine games against Hellebuyck.

Lastly, with overtime always a possibility (it is how the 4 Nations Championship game was decided), I will also be on the draw and sprinkle on a couple of players from each side to score the winner.

Olympic Hockey Predictions and Best Bets:
Both Teams to Score 2 goals (-120) – 2 units
Jack Eichel anytime goal +325 – .10 units
Jack Eichel OT winner 60/1 – .05 units
Jack Hughes anytime goal +450 – .10 units
Jack Hughes OT winner 65/1 – .05 units
Auston Matthews anytime goal +230 – .10 units
Dylan Larkin anytime goal +650 – .10 units
Quinn Hughes anytime goal +900 – .10 units
Mark Stone anytime goal +550 – .10 units
Macklin Celebrini anytime goal +180 – .10 units
Macklin Celebrini OT goal 35/1 – .05 units
Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal +180 – .10 units
Nathan MacKinnon OT goal 35/1 – .05 units
Connor McDavid anytime goal +165 – .10 units

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