Game: Oregon State Beavers vs. App State Mountaineers

Date: October 4th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

After a brutal trip out west to face Boise State, the App State Mountaineers return home to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State enters this matchup with a winless 0-5 record, though they are coming off arguably their best game of the season in an overtime loss to Houston. The Beavers’ passing attack has been decent so far, but they have not been able to generate much in the run game, and defensively things have been shaky across the board. Much of the same can be said for the Mountaineers, though they have managed to establish a bit of a run game. This shapes up as a fairly even matchup from a talent standpoint and should come down to the wire on Saturday.

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Weather

Boone is shaping up to have pleasant conditions throughout Saturday’s game, with a 0% chance of rain and temperatures in the mid to high 60s. Winds could play a minor role in this matchup, with averages around 7 mph and gusts reaching up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

There hasn’t been any movement on this one in terms of the spread, as App State opened as 1.5-point favorites and are still listed at -1.5. The moneyline, however, has shifted slightly, with Oregon State opening at -112 and now sitting around even odds to +107, while App State has moved from -108 to between -118 and -130. The total has dipped slightly from 55.5 to 53.5.

The majority of bets on the spread have been on App State at a 56% clip, with public money backing the Mountaineers spread at a 71% rate. A similar trend has appeared on under bets, with 59% of wagers on the under, while 72% of the money has also come in on the under.

Power Rankings

  • ESPN FPI: In ESPN’s FPI, Oregon State is listed at 92nd in FBS, while App State comes in at 113th. This rating would have Oregon State favored by 4 points on a neutral field.
  • SP+: This system is not nearly as high on Oregon State, with the Beavers rated 104 and App State slightly lower at 110. Based on SP+ metrics, Oregon State would be favored by just under 2 points (1.9 exactly), which is more in line with the current betting line.
  • Sagarin: Sagarin, which factors in FCS teams as well, has Oregon State at 104 in the nation, while App State ranks further back at 135.

Betting Trends

Oregon State, while 0-5 straight up, is 1-4 ATS, with the lone cover coming at home. On the road this season, the Beavers are 0-2 ATS. The over/under has been more unpredictable, as Oregon State games have produced 3 overs and 2 unders, with both unders coming in road contests.

App State has also struggled ATS this season, sitting at 1-3 overall. Their lone cover came in a neutral-site matchup against Charlotte. The Mountaineers have played just one home game so far, where they failed to cover. The over/under has split evenly at 2-2, with App State’s lone home game resulting in the under.

Final Thoughts

This game is tough to bet, as neither team has proven to be very trustworthy. It’s also worth noting how difficult it is to travel across the entire country, which gives a slight edge to App State. Even so, I don’t see much value in betting either side to win or cover. The only angle that makes sense here is looking toward the under.