On Monday, June 16th, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 of the 2024-25 NBA Finals. Keep reading for odds, predictions and best bets for this exciting showdown, but make sure you also check out the VSiN NBA Finals Betting Hub for the rest of our written content. We have a ton of people breaking down the action. We’re also talking ball regularly on our live programming, so now is a great time to be a VSiN subscriber.
How To Watch Pacers vs. Thunder – Game 5
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
When: 8:30 pm ET on Monday, June 16th
Channel: ABC
Pacers vs. Thunder Odds – Game 5
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Saturday, June 14th at 12:00 pm ET)
Moneyline: Thunder -425, Pacers +330
Spread: Thunder -9.5 (-108), Pacers +9.5 (-112)
Total: Over 223.5 (-110), Under 223.5 (-110)
Pacers vs. Thunder Prediction – Game 5
Indiana’s highway robbery in Game 1 was starting to feel like it was going to change the course of the entire season. However, with Oklahoma City stealing a win in Game 4, the two teams are even now. The Pacers led by as many as 10 in Game 4, and they had a four-point lead with 3:20 remaining. From there, the Thunder got some big-time shot making out of league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They also turned the heat up defensively, and they got a good whistle from a Scott Foster-led crew. This series is now tied at 2-2 heading into Game 5 at the Paycom Center, and that’s exactly what the score of this thing should be.
What’s interesting to me is that Oklahoma City is back to being a massive favorite. Of course, the Thunder are 9-2 with a net rating of +21.6 in 11 home games in these playoffs. They have been tremendous when playing in front of the awesome fans in Oklahoma City. But Indiana is 7-3 on the road in this postseason, and it feels like the Pacers have been the better team than the Thunder in each of the last two games. Not only did Indiana win Game 3, but the team won the Shot Quality Score battle, 108-105. Then, the Pacers were up for a good portion of Game 4, yet they managed to lose a game in which the Thunder went 3 for 16 from 3. Oklahoma City did a ton of damage at the free throw line, knocking down 34 of its 38 attempts. The Thunder also won the battle of points in the paint by 14.
Turning the page to Game 5, it’s still a little hard to trust Oklahoma City to win big. Obviously, the Thunder are still the best team in the league when it comes to turning opponents over. That was true in the regular season and has remained the case in the postseason. And if they can turn up the ball pressure, there’s always a chance they’ll rattle the Pacers on the road. But I’m not sure Indiana is going to be bullied again the rest of this series. That’s not to say the Pacers won’t lose another game, but I think they’re ready to handle whatever pressure the Thunder throw at them. Lu Dort did singlehandedly break Indiana’s halfcourt offense towards the end of Game 4, and we’ll surely see some more looks with him on the primary Pacers ball handlers in Game 5. But Rick Carlisle will have two full days to get his guys ready for that.
The Thunder just haven’t been able to generate easy offense in this series. Oklahoma City’s offensive rating is just 109.5 over the last two games, and the fact that the team only knocked down three 3s in Game 4 is concerning. But honestly, it’s even more concerning that the team attempted only 16 triples. The Pacers are doing a really good job of running the Thunder off the line, and it’s hard to win games without staying competitive in the 3-point battle. That’s another part of the reason Game 4 was so fluky. Naturally, things will be a little better at home. Role players will be a little more eager to let 3s fly, and they should have more success knocking down those shots. But who will the role players even be? At this point, Mark Daigneault seems to only trust five or six guys. And one of those guys is Chet Holmgren, who has struggled in this series and also looks a little banged up.
It just feels like Indiana is the team with the clearer identity in this series, and the team’s ability to play fast and play several bench guys is getting to Oklahoma City. The Pacers are wearing the Thunder out. That’s why it’s hard not to like Indiana to keep this game somewhat close, and I’m also playing a little Pacers moneyline. I just don’t think the gap between these teams is that wide now that we have seen them play four times.
Indiana is also 49-25 against the spread when coming off a home loss under Carlisle. On top of that, the team is 26-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 under Carlisle. Meanwhile, under Daigneault, Oklahoma City is 1-4 both straight-up and ATS when tied in a playoff series.
Bet: Pacers +9.5 (-108 – 1.5 units) & Pacers ML (+340 – 0.5 units)
NBA Links
The post Pacers vs. Thunder Best Bet: Game 5 NBA Finals predictions, preview and odds appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment