Game: Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Date: January 8th at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Closing out the College Football Playoff semifinal round, we’ll get a Big Ten rematch from early October between the Oregon Ducks and the Indiana Hoosiers. The earlier contest was won by Indiana in Eugene, and this matchup will take place on a neutral field, which should give the Hoosiers plenty of confidence. Oregon steadied the ship after that loss, winning all of their remaining games, including two playoff victories.

Offensively, the Ducks have been sharp, averaging 454.8 yards per game (9th in FBS) and 36.4 points per game (12th in FBS). Defensively, they’ve been equally impressive, allowing just 269.4 yards per game (4th in FBS) and 15.3 points per game (6th in FBS). On the other side, Indiana remains the nation’s only unbeaten team and will look to keep that run alive this week. The Hoosiers have been excellent offensively, averaging 452.1 yards per game (11th in FBS) and 39.2 points per game (4th in FBS). Indiana’s defense has been even more dominant, allowing just 266.1 yards per game (3rd in FBS) and 11.1 points per game (2nd in FBS).

This should be another dogfight similar to the first meeting, and it will be exciting to see which team earns the right to represent the Big Ten in the national championship game.

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Betting Overview

When the betting markets opened for this showdown, Indiana was listed as a 4-point favorite. Since then, we’ve seen slight movement toward Oregon, with the Hoosiers now favored by 3.5. The moneyline has followed a similar pattern, as Oregon has moved to +151 (from +154), while Indiana now sits at -176 (from -185). The total has also risen slightly at most sportsbooks, going from 47.5 to 48.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI (last updated 12/14): In this model we see Indiana at number 1 giving 28.9 points to the FBS average, while Oregon is just behind them at number 3 giving 25.2 points to the field average.  Though this model is dated, it is right on par with what Vegas has for this contest.
  • SP+ (last updated 1/2): We see these teams in the exact same spots in this model, with Indiana giving 32.4 points to the FBS average, while Oregon is giving 29.3 points to the FBS average.  Based on this, we may see a slight lean in favor of Oregon covering.

Betting Trends

In the first meeting, Indiana not only won outright but also covered as a 6.5-point underdog, while the under 51.5 cashed as well.

The Ducks enter this matchup as a 9-5 ATS team, along with a perfect 2-0 record as an underdog, a 5-4 mark in conference play, and a 1-1 record in the CFP. Oregon’s totals have split evenly this season, hitting 7 overs and 7 unders, including a 1-1 split in games as an underdog. In conference games, the under has been the stronger trend, cashing in 5 of 9 contests, while bowl games have also split 1–1 on the total.

Indiana is also 9-5 ATS this season, with a 7-5 record as a favorite, a 6-4 record in conference play, and a 1-0 mark in the CFP. Totals for the Hoosiers have split evenly as well, with 7 overs and 7 unders. As a favorite, the over has been slightly more favorable, hitting in 7 of 12 games. In conference play, totals have split 5 apiece, while the under cashed in Indiana’s lone CFP matchup.

Final Thoughts

Curt Cignetti has shown time and time again why it’s unwise to bet against him. I expect another strong defensive performance from this Indiana Hoosier team, paired with an offense capable of doing enough to put the game away. Ultimately, I think Indiana will win and cover this matchup, and I also lean toward the under.