Game: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Clemson Tigers

Date: December 27th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

This year’s Pinstripe Bowl, played at Yankee Stadium, will feature two teams that many thought would be squaring off in a playoff scenario. Nevertheless, after both teams endured lackluster seasons, Penn State and Clemson find themselves here after narrowly achieving bowl eligibility. Both teams will have a decent number of opt-outs, with Clemson taking the bigger hit, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

The good news for Clemson, however, is that they won’t have to worry about breaking in a new quarterback, as Cade Klubnik is set to play in this game. The Nittany Lions have had a really tough season, finishing 6-6 on the year. Offensively, they were just okay, averaging 349.7 yards per game (89th in FBS), along with 29.9 points per game (34th in FBS). Defensively, they were a bit better, allowing 349.5 yards per game (42nd in FBS), along with just 22.8 points per game (43rd in FBS).

Clemson had a difficult start to the season and hit some bumps in the middle, but persevered late, winning four straight to finish 7-5. On the offensive side of the ball, they averaged 400.6 yards per game (46th in FBS), along with 27.2 points per game (63rd in FBS). Defensively, they were solid, allowing just 361.3 yards per game (49th in FBS) and 21.4 points per game (30th in FBS). This sets up what should be a fairly even matchup, and the venue will be about as cool as it gets for a college football bowl game.

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Weather

The weather in this matchup could be a bit iffy, with temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 30s throughout the game and a chance of snow. There is also snow expected overnight in the Bronx, which could play a small role in field conditions. Winds may factor in as well, averaging around 8 mph with gusts up to 18 mph.

Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for the Pinstripe Bowl, Penn State was a 1.5-point favorite. As time has gone on, the line has flipped, with Clemson now sitting around a 2.5-point favorite. The moneyline opened essentially as a pick’em, but now Penn State is at +125 while Clemson is at -140. The total has remained steady at 48.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: Penn State finds themselves a good bit ahead of Clemson in this model, as they’re at 17th giving 15.7 points to the FBS average, while Clemson is at 30th, giving 9.8 to the field average.  Based on this, we should see Penn State as a 5-to-6-point favorite.
  • SP+: This model has a pretty similar outlook, with Penn State at 17th, giving 17 points to the FBS average.  Clemson is at 32nd, giving 10.8 to the FBS average.  This again, would have Penn State as around a 6-point favorite.

Betting Trends

Penn State enters this bowl game with a 4–8 ATS record, an 0–3 record in non-conference games, and a 2–1 record as an underdog. Totals for the Nittany Lions have favored the over, hitting in 8 of 12 games, including 2 of 3 in non-conference matchups and 2 of 3 when playing as an underdog this season.

Clemson has also struggled ATS this year, coming in with a 5–7 overall record, a 1–3 mark in non-conference games, and a 3–7 record in games as a favorite. Totals have gone 3–7–2 on the season, favoring the under. In non-conference play, the under has hit in 3 of 4 games, along with a 3–5–2 record in games where Clemson was favored.

Final Thoughts

I think Vegas has this one priced correctly, given how narrow the spread is. The opt outs for Clemson are certainly concerning, though I still believe they will remain competitive in this matchup. I’m not overly confident in picking a side in this game, but I would lean toward the over, especially with all of the defensive opt outs on both sides.