Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa (over 0.5 interceptions -162): The Miami Dolphins enter this game desperate for a win as they sit at 0-2. Head coach Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat and will need to be as aggressive as possible in this Thursday Night Football matchup against the Bills. So far this season, Tua Tagovailoa already has three interceptions—two in Week 1 and one last week. While the Bills have no interceptions yet, they recorded the fifth-most in the 2024 season with 16, three of which came against Tua.

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Josh Allen (under 29.5 rush yards -113): While Josh Allen has been effective in the run game so far this season, averaging 44.5 yards per game, I expect the Bills will want him staying in the pocket more in this matchup. In the first two weeks, facing the Ravens and Jets—both with strong secondaries—Allen was forced to make plays on his own. This week against Miami, that won’t be necessary, and in the last four games Buffalo has played against the Dolphins, Allen has topped 29.5 rushing yards only once.

DeVon Achane (over 53.5 rush yards -113): While there have been few bright spots for the Dolphins in recent years against the Bills, DeVon Achane has been one of them. In his four games versus Buffalo, he has averaged 79 rushing yards and would have cleared the 53.5-yard projection in all four. If the Dolphins are going to have any chance in this game, they’ll need to control the clock and keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands as long as possible, which means leaning heavily on the run game.

Keon Coleman (over 3.5 receptions +129): This selection is partly due to the value and partly to the Dolphins’ weak secondary. Through two games this season, Keon Coleman has 11 receptions—eight in Week 1 and three last week. While it’s concerning, he had only three targets against the Jets, if my prediction of Allen staying in the pocket more this week is correct, that should boost Coleman’s target share and, in turn, his chances for a reception. The Bills have been searching for a feature wide receiver since Stefon Diggs’ departure, and I think Coleman can step into that role. This is a fantastic week to show that promise.