Introduction

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Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions got off to an incredible start in 2024 and did just enough down the stretch to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. However, as the playoffs approached, the Lions didn’t quite resemble the dominant team they had been earlier in the season, and their injury issues became apparent during their postseason run. Last season was arguably the best of Goff’s NFL career, and he’ll return in 2025 with much of the same roster—though the team will certainly feel the absence of veteran center Frank Ragnow. Another key loss is offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who accepted the Bears’ head coaching job. The Lions’ offense thrived under Johnson’s scheme, known for its creativity, misdirection, and diverse formations. Former Broncos pass game coordinator John Morton will step into the OC role in 2025, and he’ll have big shoes to fill. This will be an important test for both Jared Goff and head coach Dan Campbell as they look to maintain offensive momentum amid these changes. Let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks are projecting for Goff this season, and whether last year’s excellence will influence his 2025 outlook.

Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3900.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3750.5 (over -135; under +105)
  • FanDuel: 3875.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3850.5 (over -130; under +100)
  • BetMGM: 3850.5 (over -135; under +110)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 28.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 26.5 (over -130; under -105)
  • FanDuel: 28.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 28.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 28.5 (over even; under -120)

The best value for Jared Goff’s passing yards over can be found at ESPN Bet and DraftKings. ESPN Bet offers a lower yardage line, giving you less ground to cover, while DraftKings provides better odds, albeit with a higher yardage number. For the under on passing yards, the best value is either with BetMGM or DraftKings, with a slight edge going to BetMGM for overall value.

When it comes to passing touchdowns, the best value for the over is available at either ESPN Bet or BetMGM, while the best under value can be found at DraftKings or Bet365.

Last season, Goff threw for 4629 yards and 37 touchdowns. Since becoming a full-time starter in 2017, he has averaged 4246 passing yards and 27.1 touchdowns per season. These numbers certainly make the current passing yard projections more appealing from an over perspective, especially— considering the Lions have two dynamic running backs who can vulture touchdowns on the ground. However, Jahmyr Gibbs, in particular, has been a frequent and effective target in the passing game, which could help sustain Goff’s production through the air.

Conclusion

This coming season will likely start a bit slower for the Lions as a whole, given the coaching changes. With all the offensive weapons in place, it’s hard to imagine Goff having a poor season, though replicating the magic of last year will be a challenge. If the receiving corps can stay relatively healthy and Sam LaPorta can deliver another strong season, Jared Goff and the Lions will once again be a team to watch in the NFC.