Introduction

Michael Penix Jr. is set to enter his first full season as a starting NFL quarterback. With limited live NFL game reps to evaluate, this year will be a learning experience for both bettors and oddsmakers. What we do know is that Penix is a classic pocket passer who brings a unique twist as a left-handed quarterback. His arm strength could pose challenges for opposing defenses—especially if the Falcons’ offensive line holds up—given the array of weapons Atlanta has both on the outside and in the backfield with Bijan Robinson.

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Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3400.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3350.5 (over Even; under -130)
  • FanDuel: 3350.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3350.5 (over -115; under -105)
  • BetMGM: 3400.5 (over -115; under -105)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 19.5 (over -115; under -115)
  • ESPN Bet: 18.5 (over Even; under -130)
  • FanDuel: 18.5 (over -130; under -104)
  • Bet365: 18.5 (over -115; under -105)
  • BetMGM: 18.5 (over -120; under Even)

At this time, the best value for both overs is with ESPN Bet, while the best value for the under on passing yards is with BetMGM. For passing touchdowns, the under holds the most value at DraftKings, as it’s currently listed one touchdown higher than other books.

Based on last season’s stats from Penix’s three starts, he averaged 245.6 passing yards per game. If he maintains that average over a full season, he will project to throw for over 4,100 yards in 17 games, over 3,900 in 16 games, and over 3,600 in 15 games. If Penix can stay healthy and sustain that pace, he should have no trouble hitting the over on his current passing yards lines across most sportsbooks.

As for passing touchdowns, he threw three in those three starts, which would put him on pace for 17 touchdowns over a full 17-game season. While a full season would likely include multiple multi-touchdown games, the better value at this point appears to be on his passing yards projection rather than touchdowns.

Conclusion

Though Penix lacks the mobility of a dual-threat quarterback, his strength as a pocket passer in a high-octane offense should bode well for the over on his regular season passing projections. With young and exciting talent surrounding him, this could be a breakout year for the second-year quarterback and the Falcons.