Introduction

As the Seattle Seahawks say goodbye to Geno Smith, they welcome a new quarterback in Sam Darnold. The USC product has landed on his 5th team and is entering his 8th NFL season. Last year with the Vikings was easily his best season under center, as he threw for 4319 yards and tallied 35 passing touchdowns, leading Minnesota to a playoff berth. Darnold greatly benefited from the talent around him, playing behind one of the league’s best offensive lines and with a wealth of weapons on the outside. This year in Seattle presents a different challenge for Darnold, as he will line up behind arguably one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, though he’ll have strong targets at wide receiver, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and newly acquired Cooper Kupp. The concern is that when Darnold has been behind a weaker line, he hasn’t elevated his play, but we’ll see if he can after coming off his best season yet. Let’s check what the sportsbooks think and whether they believe Darnold is up to the task in the NFC West.

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Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3400.5 (over even; under -120)
  • ESPN Bet: 3350.5 (over -115; under -115)
  • FanDuel: 3350.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3400.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3450.5 (over -105; under -115)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 20.5 (over +115; under -145)
  • ESPN Bet: 19.5 (over -120; under -110)
  • FanDuel: 20.5 (over +112; under -148)
  • Bet365: 19.5 (over -130; under even)
  • BetMGM: 20.5 (over even; under -120)

The sportsbooks appear to have modest expectations for Sam Darnold, given that he’s on a new team and lacks the protection he enjoyed last year. In terms of value, DraftKings currently offers the best odds for both passing yards and touchdowns overs. For the under on passing yards, you can go with either Bet365 or BetMGM, and the same applies to the passing touchdowns under.

In the five seasons where Sam Darnold was the starting quarterback from Week 1, he has averaged 2988.6 passing yards and 17.8 passing touchdowns. It is worth noting that in the first four seasons he started the year, he did not play in every game.

Conclusion

The Sam Darnold experiment in Seattle will certainly be an interesting one to follow. Will he be able to carry over the level of play and knowledge he gained from Kevin O’Connell, or will he revert to the habits of his first couple of NFL seasons? My biggest concern is the protection up front, which will likely be significantly worse than what he had in Minnesota last season.