Introduction

After a Super Bowl run in the 2023–2024 season, the 49ers had a disappointing 2024 regular season and are now looking to bounce back—along with quarterback Brock Purdy. While last season wasn’t terrible for Purdy, it was clearly a step back from the year prior. He threw for 3,864 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His QBR was 67.9, ranking seventh in the league, but his passer rating dropped significantly—from 113.0 in 2023–2024 to 96.1 last season.

San Francisco enters this season without the versatile Deebo Samuel but hopes to have Brandon Aiyuk back at full strength after his ACL tear last year. The question now is whether the sportsbooks believe in a bounce-back year for Purdy—or if they expect a continuation of last season’s decline.

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Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3800.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3700.5 (over -145; under +115)
  • FanDuel: 3850.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3850.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3850.5 (over -105; under -115)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 23.5 (over -115; under -105)
  • ESPN Bet: 23.5 (over -115; under -115) 
  • FanDuel: 24.5 (over even; under -132)
  • Bet365:  24.5 (over even; under -130)
  • BetMGM: 24.5 (over even; under -120)

Based on current sportsbook listings, it’s clear that expectations are high for a bounce-back season from Brock Purdy—particularly in the passing touchdowns category. For those optimistic about Purdy surpassing his projected passing yards, the best yardage value is available at ESPN Bet. However, if you’re focused on the best odds, BetMGM offers a more favorable line.

On the other hand, for those expecting a regression, the under 3850.5 passing yards at -114 on FanDuel presents the best value.

As for passing touchdowns, both DraftKings and ESPN Bet have identical totals and odds for the over. However, if you’re confident in Purdy surpassing the 25-touchdown mark, better odds can be found with books that have his total set at 24.5. For under bettors, DraftKings offers the best value—especially if you’re not concerned about other books giving him an extra touchdown cushion.

Conclusion

Entering his fourth year with the team, Brock Purdy should have some added confidence—especially after signing a five-year extension with the 49ers. Head coach Kyle Shanahan, known for his offensive acumen, will likely push Purdy and this offense hard heading into 2025, determined to avoid a repeat of last season. While the NFC West remains a tough division, last year’s long offseason could work in San Francisco’s favor as they prepare for the upcoming season.