Introduction

The Tennessee Titans organization feels like it has been in a constant rebuild over the last several seasons. Cam Ward is the 10th quarterback drafted by the Titans since 2006, when they selected Vince Young. Even before the recent news about Will Levis undergoing season-ending surgery, Ward was expected to be the unquestioned starter heading into the season. As a rookie—and especially as the first overall pick—there’s a lot of pressure on him, and it will be a tough transition, particularly with all the changes on the Titans’ offense. Excluding Ward, there will be five other new starters on offense, so it feels like there will be a lot of trial and error this season in Tennessee. That said, let’s take a look at where the sportsbooks have set Cam Ward’s regular season passing yards and touchdown props.

Embed from Getty Images

Player Prop Futures

Passing Yards

  • DraftKings: 3200.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • ESPN Bet: 3100.5 (over -130; under even)
  • FanDuel: 3200.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Bet365: 3205.5 (over -110; under -110)
  • BetMGM: 3225.5 (over -105; under -115)

Passing Touchdowns

  • DraftKings: 19.5 (over +110; under -135)
  • ESPN Bet: 18.5 (over -115; under -115)
  • FanDuel: 18.5 (over -132; under -102)
  • Bet365: 19.5 (over -105; under -115)
  • BetMGM: 18.5 (over -125; under +105)

The most variance among sportsbooks seems to be in Ward’s passing yards season total. This means if you have a strong feeling either way, you can potentially find some good value. ESPN Bet is giving you an extra 100 yards to work with on the over. At -115 on BetMGM, you can get the under for Ward at 3,225.5 yards, which is by far the best value available. As for the touchdown totals, DraftKings appears to offer the best overall value on the over, while BetMGM provides the best value on the under.

Since Cam Ward is entering his rookie season, we have no prior NFL stats to reference. However, in his final season with the Miami Hurricanes, he was a gunslinger—throwing for 4,313 yards with a 67.2% completion percentage, 39 touchdowns, and only 7 interceptions.

Conclusion

The NFL is certainly a different level of football than Ward has experienced, and he won’t have as strong of a team around him as he did in Miami comparatively, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts early. Given that he’s expected to be the starter, it will also be worth watching how Tennessee uses him in the preseason. I believe it will be vital for his development to get as many live reps as possible before the regular season. How he handles the adjustment early on will set the tone for his rookie year, and it should be fun to see whether he can find his footing.