After last week’s top-25 games were largely underwhelming outside of Oregon vs. Iowa, we’re gearing up for a much stronger slate this Saturday. We also get a wide range of conferences (and one independent) represented, adding some welcome variety compared to recent weeks.

The noon slate kicks off with a duel between CJ Carr and Mason Heintschel in Notre Dame vs. Pitt. In the 3:30 window, we get two matchups—one in the SEC and one in the Big Ten. The SEC game features John Mateer and Oklahoma against Ty Simpson and Alabama, while the Big Ten clash has Mark Gronkowski and Iowa taking on Jayden Maiava and USC.

To close out the day in the 7:30 PM slot, Arch Manning and Texas travel to Athens to face Gunner Stockton and Georgia.

Let’s dive into this week’s top-25 matchups and the QB props available.

(9) Notre Dame vs. (22) Pitt

CJ Carr:

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  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 254.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -152; under +114)

We recently saw CJ Carr receive some high praise from Tom Brady, and rightfully so. As a freshman, he has shown as much poise as anyone. He’s averaged 252.7 passing yards per game this season, along with 2.1 passing touchdowns. Pitt’s defense has allowed 245.8 passing yards per game.

While Carr’s projection sits above his season average, I can definitely see him clearing this line. The over on his passing touchdowns also looks like the right play.

Mason Heintschel:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 263.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +130; under –174)
    • Rushing Yards: 18.5 (over -114; under -114)

This is the first time we’ve seen Pitt’s Mason Heintschel in one of these top-25 matchups. He also hasn’t played in every game this year, but he’s been effective when called upon. In his starts, Heintschel has averaged 309.4 passing yards per game, 2.4 passing touchdowns, and 28.6 rushing yards.

Notre Dame’s defense allows just 232.3 passing yards per game and 102.2 rushing yards per game. I think Heintschel could be in for a long day trying to move the ball against this unit. The only value play here looks like the over on his passing touchdowns.

(11) Oklahoma vs. (4) Alabama

John Mateer:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 205.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -215; under +158)
    • Rushing Yards: 31.5 (over -114; under -114)

John Mateer still hasn’t looked quite the same since his surgery. He averages 243.6 passing yards per game, but since returning he’s posted just 183.5 per game. He’s only gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns once, and that came against Illinois State. On the ground, he’s still been solid, averaging 38.2 rushing yards.

Alabama has allowed only 164.1 passing yards per game and 139.1 rushing yards per game. Mateer will have a difficult time surpassing his passing props, and the only over that feels plausible is on his rushing yards.

Ty Simpson:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 268.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -114; under -114)

Ty Simpson has continued to roll through the season, turning in strong performances week after week. Through nine games, he’s averaging 273.4 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game. The Sooners defense remains tough against the pass, allowing just 200.3 yards per game. If there’s anything worth playing for Simpson, it would be the over on passing touchdowns — his yardage feels like more of a coin flip.

(21) Iowa vs. (17) USC

Mark Gronkowski:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 140.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 0.5 (over -205; under +152)
    • Rushing Yards: 29.5 (over -114; under -114)

Mark Gronkowski has certainly filled his role within this Iowa offense. While the unit isn’t known for its explosiveness, he’s averaged 120.4 passing yards per game, and last week marked just his fourth passing touchdown of the season. He has topped his current rushing projection four times. USC allows 205.1 passing yards per game and 141.7 rushing yards, but given Iowa’s offensive limitations, the best approach here is likely taking the unders on all of Gronkowski’s projections.

Jayden Maiava:

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  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 244.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -114; under -114)

Jayden Maiava has been one of the most efficient passers in college football this season. Through nine games, he’s averaged 290.4 passing yards and 1.8 passing touchdowns per contest. However, he’ll be facing one of the nation’s toughest pass defenses, as Iowa allows just 148.3 yards per game through the air. I’d avoid his passing touchdown projection, but the under on his passing yards looks like the right play.

(10) Texas vs. (5) Georgia

Arch Manning:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 224.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +154; under -210)
    • Rushing Yards: 20.5 (over -114; under -114)

Arch Manning took a lot of flak at the beginning of the season, but he has been much better as of late. He now averages 235.8 yards per game, with 2 passing touchdowns per game, and 22.5 rushing yards per game. This Georgia team has allowed 218 yards per game through the air, along with 107.4 rushing yards per game. It will be difficult for Manning to generate a consistent passing game, but he very well could surpass his rushing yards.

Gunner Stockton:

  • Props
    • Passing Yards: 224.5 (over -114; under -114)
    • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +148; under -200)
    • Rushing Yards: 27.5 (over -114; under -114)

Georgia’s Gunner Stockton has played much better than many anticipated at the beginning of the season. He is averaging 226.6 yards per game through the air, 1.6 touchdowns per game, and 35.6 rushing yards per game. The Longhorns haven’t been great against the pass, allowing 235.8 yards per game, but they are a very good rush defense, allowing 78.2 yards per game on the ground. I think Georgia will bring a heavy passing attack into this game, which bodes well for the over on pass yards, but the same cannot be said for the rushing yards projection.