QB Spotlight: QB Props for Week 3 Top 25 Games

After an exciting Week 2 in college football, even with a mediocre slate, optimism is high heading into Week 3. The schedule this week isn’t quite as strong as Week 1 with all of those top 10 matchups, but we still get three ranked battles on Saturday. The top 25 action kicks off at 3:30 PM ET with the College GameDay showdown between Georgia and Tennessee, a high-caliber SEC clash. Shortly after at 4:30 PM ET, in the surprise top 25 game of the week, USF will travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes. Finally, we get a rematch from last season between Texas A&M and Notre Dame, this time in South Bend, Indiana. These games feature some premier quarterback play, and it will be exciting to see how each one performs this weekend—so let’s take a look at what the sportsbooks think about the quarterbacks in these matchups.

(6) Georgia Vs. (15) Tennessee

Gunner Stockton: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton will be making his first start against an SEC opponent, and it comes on the road in one of the most hostile environments in college football—Neyland Stadium. Things haven’t gone quite as expected so far for Stockton and the Bulldogs, with a solid showing against Marshall in Week 1 and a lackluster effort in Week 2 against Austin Peay. Georgia has still taken care of business to start 2-0, but Stockton and the offense will need a more complete performance against Tennessee. Stockton is currently projected at 227.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114), 1.5 passing touchdowns (over -118; under -112), and 25.5 rushing yards (over -114; under -114) per FanDuel. Through the first two weeks, he has yet to surpass 227 passing yards, though on the ground he ran for 73 yards in Week 1. He threw two touchdowns in that opener but none last week. I do expect him to be used in the running game again, though in college football it’s important to remember sacks count as negative rushing yards. The offensive line hasn’t given up a sack so far, but if Stockton holds onto the ball too long while trying to extend plays, that could change this week.

Joey Aguilar: Through two weeks, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar has looked solid, but this will be his first real test as he faces the Georgia defense. He is currently projected at 201.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114), 1.5 passing touchdowns (over +154; under -210), and 10.5 rushing yards (over -114; under -114) per FanDuel. In each of his first two games he would have cleared the passing yards and touchdown lines, but on the ground, he had no rushing attempts last week, while in Week 1 against Syracuse he recorded six carries for 34 yards. Georgia’s defense has been tough to throw against so far, allowing just 125.5 passing yards per game with no passing touchdowns. However, Marshall quarterback Zion Turner did manage 19 rushing yards in Week 1. Tennessee typically likes to push the ball downfield, but that will be difficult against this Georgia secondary, so I expect more short yardage plays and a heavier rushing attack if the passing game stalls.

(18) USF vs. (5) Miami

Byrum Brown: USF has looked like the top Group of 5 team so far, and quarterback Byrum Brown has been a major factor, especially in their Week 2 win over Florida. This week brings a tougher test for the Bulls as they travel in-state to face Miami. Brown is currently projected at 195.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114), 0.5 passing touchdowns (over -240; under +174), and 41.5 rushing yards (over -114; under -114) per FanDuel. He has been heavily involved in the ground game, posting 43 rushing yards in Week 1 and 66 in Week 2. That element has been crucial in creating balance for USF’s offense, so I expect a high volume of carries for him again. The biggest challenge here is Miami’s front seven, which looks as strong as it has in years. I would stay away from Brown’s passing props unless taking the under on yards, but the rushing line offers strong value given his workload through the first two weeks.

Carson Beck: Miami has looked sharp through the first two weeks, and I expect the offense to take another step forward under Carson Beck. Beck is currently projected at 282.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114) and 2.5 passing touchdowns (over -102; under -130) per FanDuel. The passing yardage line feels a bit steep, as he hasn’t reached that mark yet this season, but I think Mario Cristobal will look to open up the air attack against USF. Last week’s game wasn’t a true indicator of Miami’s offense, as coaches typically hold back against FCS opponents. The touchdown line is tricky at 2.5, so I’d avoid it unless it shifts down to 1.5. Either way, it will be exciting to see how this Miami offense evolves in Week 3 with Beck steering the unit.

(16) Texas A&M vs. (8) Notre Dame

Marcel Reed: Marcel Reed and the Texas A&M Aggies have handled business through the first two weeks, but this will be their first true test of the season. Reed is currently projected at 183.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114), 1.5 passing touchdowns (over +164; under -225), and 33.5 rushing yards (over -114; under -114). This is by far the toughest defense the Aggies have faced, and the passing game will likely need to click if they want a shot at pulling off the win. The ground game hasn’t been overly effective, with Reed himself serving as the team’s leading rusher to this point. Expect Notre Dame to deploy a spy to contain him, making it crucial for Reed to take advantage of what the defense allows. He has executed well in the early going, but this matchup on the road against an elite opponent will be the real measuring stick for both him and the Aggies.

CJ Carr: The Irish had a bye last week following their tough Week 1 loss to Miami, giving them nearly two full weeks to prepare for Texas A&M. That extra time could prove valuable come kickoff. CJ Carr, in his first college start, performed fairly well against a strong Miami defense, and this week he’s projected for 205.5 passing yards (over -114; under -114) and 1.5 touchdowns (over -118; under -112). Texas A&M’s defense has been vulnerable against the run, particularly last week against UTSA when they gave up 203 rushing yards. That plays right into Notre Dame’s hands with Jeremiyah Love, who wasn’t featured as much as expected in the opener but should see a heavier workload here. With the bye week allowing the offensive line to build more chemistry, the run game could be the focal point. For that reason, the under on both of Carr’s passing props looks like the smarter play.