QB Spotlight: QB Props for Week 5 Top 25 Games

We are on the eve of one of, if not the, biggest regular-season college football Saturdays of the year. This weekend is chock-full of top-25 matchups—two featuring Big Ten teams and two pitting SEC foes against each other. To kick things off, the Big Noon game showcases USC against Illinois. In the 3:30 slot, we’ll see the historic rivalry between LSU and Ole Miss. Finally, the 7:30 slate brings two top-25 showdowns: Oregon facing Penn State and Alabama traveling to Georgia. These programs wouldn’t be where they are without the players under center, so let’s take a look at the QB props for each of these marquee games.

(21) USC vs. (23) Illinois

Jayden Maiava: 

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 269.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 2.5 (over +162; under +220)
  • Rushing Yards: 11.5 (over -114; under -114)

Over the years, USC head coach Lincoln Riley has taken plenty of heat for failing to capitalize in big moments. One thing you can’t fault him for, however, is quarterback development—several of his signal-callers have gone on to do great things. Jayden Maiava looks poised to join that list, throwing for 1,223 yards, nine touchdowns, and zero interceptions through four games. He hasn’t been used much as a runner, totaling just 55 yards on the ground, though he does have four rushing scores. This week’s matchup with Illinois will be interesting, especially after the Illini were steamrolled in Bloomington last week. USC’s high-powered offense should be on full display, but a passing prop of 269.5 yards still feels steep.

Luke Altmyer

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 232.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +106; under -140)

Luke Altmyer and the Illinois Fighting Illini need to regroup quickly after last week’s rough loss at Indiana. The good news is they’re back home, but the opponent isn’t any easier. USC’s defense isn’t quite as stout as Indiana’s, which could give Altmyer more opportunities, yet 232.5 passing yards is a lofty mark—he’s topped that total only once this season. I do see value on the over for his passing touchdowns, though, since Illinois will need plenty of points to keep pace.

(4) LSU vs. (11) Ole Miss

Garrett Nussmeier:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 286.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -188; under -140)

As LSU enters its fifth game of the season, the Tigers haven’t piled up points, nor have they lit up the stat sheet, especially through the air. Garrett Nussmeier has been a steady piece for this LSU squad, staying careful with the ball for the most part. This week may push him to be a little more aggressive, as Ole Miss brings a high-powered offense on the other side. The good news for LSU is that the Rebels’ defense isn’t exactly the strongest we’ve seen over the years, which could turn this into a shootout. Oddsmakers seem to think so as well, given the short odds on the over for Nussmeier’s passing touchdowns.

Trinidad Chambliss:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 260.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +112; under -148)

With the injury to Austin Simmons, Trinidad Chambliss has stepped in as the starting quarterback. Fortunately for the Rebels, he already has two games of experience, coming in their last two matchups against Arkansas and Tulane. This will clearly be his toughest challenge yet, but he won’t face it alone. In those two starts, Chambliss topped 300 passing yards each time and totaled three touchdown throws. LSU’s defense hasn’t surrendered many points this season, but given how well these two programs know each other, it would be surprising if we don’t see plenty of fireworks in this one.

(6) Oregon vs. (3) Penn State

Dante Moore:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 222.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +118; under -158)

Dante Moore and the Oregon Ducks head to State College to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. Moore has been steady, but none of their games so far have demanded his full workload, as every matchup has turned into a blowout. Beaver Stadium will be electric Saturday night, but head coach Dan Lanning will surely have his team prepared. I don’t have a strong read on Moore’s passing yards, but there’s significant value on the over for passing touchdowns, especially with plus-money odds.

Drew Allar:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 226.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +102; under -136)
  • Rushing Yards: 12.5 (over -114; under -114)

Similar to Dante Moore, Penn State hasn’t needed Drew Allar’s full skill set for an entire game. There is some concern, though, as Allar hasn’t been especially efficient when he has played. You never really know what offensive coordinators reveal in games against weaker opponents, but this Penn State offense will need to elevate against Oregon. Allar has yet to surpass 226.5 passing yards this season—which doesn’t mean he can’t, but he only topped that mark five times last year. In the Big Ten championship versus Oregon, he threw for exactly 226 yards with three passing touchdowns and added 54 rushing yards plus a score.

(17) Alabama vs. (5) Georgia

Ty Simpson:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 269.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -130; under -102)
  • Rushing Yards: 13.5 (over -114; under -114)

After a rough Week 1 for the Crimson Tide, Ty Simpson and his squad have bounced back impressively. Simpson’s QBR jumped from 55.8 in Week 1 to 99.4 in Week 2 and 89.7 in Week 3. That said, he’s topped 269.5 passing yards only once this season but has cleared the current rushing projection twice. He’s thrown nine touchdown passes so far, hitting the 1.5 passing-TD mark in all three games. This matchup with Georgia will be his toughest test yet. In Georgia’s only ranked game this season, the Bulldogs allowed 371 passing yards and four touchdowns against Tennessee. The difference now is the hostile Athens crowd, so Simpson must start fast to have any chance of meeting those projections.

Gunner Stockton:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 214.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +124; under -166)
  • Rushing Yards: 36.5 (over -114; under -114)

Gunner Stockton and the Georgia Bulldogs appear to have found their rhythm on offense after the big win at Tennessee. In that game, Stockton threw for 304 yards with two touchdowns and added 38 rushing yards plus another score. Even with Alabama’s Week 1 loss, their pass defense has been stifling, allowing just 108 yards per game—though that includes UL Monroe. In Week 1 against FSU, they surrendered only 152 passing yards to Tommy Castellanos. We’ll see how this team handles an SEC road test, and I’m curious about Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo’s game plan. I expect Stockton to clear the passing-yard projection, but I’d be cautious on the other two props.