QB Spotlight: QB Props for Week 7 Top 25 Games

As we head into Week 7 of the College Football season, most teams are now entering the heart of conference play. This week features three Top 25 matchups — two from the Big Ten and one from the SEC.

At 12:00 PM, we’ll see Ohio State travel to Champaign, Illinois to face Illinois, while Alabama, for the third straight week, takes on a Top 25 opponent — this time heading to Missouri to face the undefeated 5-0 Tigers. To round out this week’s ranked matchups, Indiana and Oregon square off in a 3:30 PM contest in Eugene. All of these teams have already been featured in Top 25 showdowns this season — except Missouri — and several elite quarterbacks in these games are currently in the Heisman conversation.

Let’s take a look at the QB prop lines for these matchups and see where the value might lie.

(1) Ohio State vs. (17) Illinois

Julian Sayin:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 265.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 2.5 (over +130; under -174)

The number one ranked Ohio State Buckeyes have earned that top spot for good reason. While much of the attention has been on their elite defense, quarterback Julian Sayin has quietly emerged as one of the best signal-callers in the nation. Through five games, Sayin is averaging 262.6 passing yards per game and 2.6 touchdowns, showing noticeable growth in his ability to read and diagnose defenses — something made even easier by the talent surrounding him. This week, Sayin faces an Illinois defense that has struggled mightily against the pass, allowing 276 yards per game (119th in FBS). That matchup sets up a strong case for Ohio State to lean heavily on the passing attack. If Sayin continues playing at his current level, there’s little reason to believe he won’t clear both of his prop projections. The touchdown line is the trickier one, since he’ll need three passing scores to cover, but he’s already done that in three of Ohio State’s five games this season.

Luke Altmyer:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 210.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +168; under -230)

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been solid throughout the season outside of a rough outing against Indiana in Week 4, but this will be by far his toughest test of the year against Ohio State. Altmyer is averaging 314.6 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game, but the Buckeyes’ defense presents a completely different level of challenge. Ohio State ranks 4th nationally in pass defense, allowing just 137.5 yards per game through the air, and leads the nation in points allowed per game at 6.3. Dating back to last season, Altmyer has struggled against top 25 opponents, surpassing 200 passing yards only once, and throwing more than two touchdowns just once in those games. His lone strong performance came against USC, a team that was ranked at the time but not known for its defense. Given the elite level of Ohio State’s secondary and pass rush, this looks like a difficult spot for Altmyer, and it’s hard to feel confident in him hitting either of his passing props this week.

(8) Alabama vs. (14) Missouri

Ty Simpson: 

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 278.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -166; under +124)

Ty Simpson has been on an absolute tear lately and is firmly in the Heisman conversation at this point in the season. Through Alabama’s first five games, he’s averaged 295.5 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. This week, the Crimson Tide face a Missouri defense that has been solid against the pass, though they haven’t faced a truly elite passing offense yet. Missouri ranks 9th nationally in passing yards allowed per game at 158.5, but their red zone defense has been a weakness, allowing opponents to score on 100% of their red zone trips. While Simpson’s passing yardage projection feels like a toss-up given Missouri’s secondary strength, his passing touchdown prop looks more attainable, and I’d feel confident in him covering that mark.

Beau Pribula

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 204.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over +144; under -194)

This will be the first true high-caliber matchup of the season for Beau Pribula and the Missouri Tigers, though they’ll at least have the benefit of playing at home. Pribula has averaged 240.6 passing yards and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game so far, but he’s facing one of the best pass defenses in the nation. Alabama has held opponents to just 130.4 passing yards per game and ranks 13th nationally in points allowed per game at 16. In Missouri’s only SEC game this season, Pribula managed just 171 yards and one touchdown through the air. I’d expect a similar performance in this one, making the under on his passing yards the better play, while the passing touchdown prop feels too risky given the limited value.

(7) Indiana vs. (3) Oregon

Fernando Mendoza: 

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 224.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 1.5 (over -140; under +106)
  • Rushing Yards: 19.5 (over -114; under -114)

In this Big 10 heavyweight showdown between Indiana and Oregon, we get two quarterbacks who have both started the season strong. Fernando Mendoza has averaged 241.6 passing yards per game along with 3.2 passing touchdowns per game. In his first two Big 10 matchups, he’s been highly effective—posting a huge game against Illinois and a solid one versus Iowa—clearing both his passing yard and touchdown projections in each. Oregon’s defense, however, presents a major challenge. The Ducks rank 2nd nationally in passing yards allowed per game at just 104.8. While some of their opponents haven’t been great, they did hold Drew Allar to only 137 passing yards on the road two weeks ago. Indiana’s stronger run game compared to Penn State’s could help take some pressure off Mendoza, but overall, this is a tough matchup. I’m not overly confident in his passing or rushing yards, but I do think he has a good chance to clear his passing touchdowns projection.

Dante Moore:

• Props
  • Passing Yards: 237.5 (over -114; under -114)
  • Passing TD’s: 2.5 (over +162; under -220)
  • 24.5 Rushing Yards (over -114; under -114)

Dante Moore has been extremely sharp this season, though we’ve only seen him truly tested once — on the road at Penn State. In that game, he delivered, throwing 39 times for 248 yards while also adding 35 on the ground. On the year, Moore is averaging 242 passing yards per game, 2.8 passing touchdowns, and 24.4 rushing yards per game. Indiana’s defense has been one of the most balanced units in the country, allowing just 100.3 rushing yards per game (21st in FBS) and 157.3 passing yards per game (8th in FBS). While Moore hasn’t had any major slip-ups so far, this feels like a tougher matchup than most. I’m not overly confident in him covering either of his passing props, but I do think his rushing yards projection is very attainable.