Game: Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers

Date: November 30th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

This Sunday marks the week before the Panthers’ bye, and it comes against an opponent that has been arguably the best team in the NFL: the Los Angeles Rams. The one clear advantage for Carolina is that this matchup is at home, where they’ve generally played well. Last week, the Rams extended their win streak to six after routing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football, bringing their overall record to 9-2. They remain one of the league’s top offenses, ranking 9th in yards per game (358.4) and 6th in points per game (27.8). Their defense has been just as impressive, sitting 9th in yards allowed per game (311.2) and 1st in points allowed per game (16.3).

Carolina, meanwhile, dropped a tough game to the 49ers on Monday Night Football, bringing them back to .500 at 6-6. Offensively, they’ve struggled, ranking 23rd in yards per game (307.3) and 28th in points per game (18). The defense has been more consistent, allowing 327.1 yards per game (18th) and 22.4 points per game (13th). While this isn’t necessarily a “must-win” for the Panthers in terms of the NFC South race, it would be encouraging to see them compete against a formidable opponent like the Los Angeles Rams.

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Weather

Charlotte, North Carolina is expected to be relatively cool for this game, with temperatures in the mid to high 40s. There’s also a decent chance of rain, sitting around 50% throughout the matchup. Winds should average around 6 mph, with gusts reaching up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview

Preseason, the Rams were listed as just 3.5-point favorites, but now they sit as 10 to 10.5-point favorites. With that sizable shift, the moneyline has moved significantly as well, with Los Angeles at -550 (from -175) and Carolina at +490 (from +145). The total has remained fairly steady at 45.5, with some books showing slight movement to 44.5 or 45.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching matchup in this one isn’t particularly close at this point. Sean McVay is a far more proven commodity and has consistently shown the ability to scheme effectively against any opponent. Dave Canales and his staff still have a way to go before entering that conversation.

DLs vs. OLs: Carolina has been strong up front, especially on the offensive line. However, the Rams have been better overall. They’ve given Matthew Stafford plenty of time in the pocket, and their defensive line can both pressure the quarterback and stop the run at a high level.

QBs: Matthew Stafford clearly has the advantage here. His blend of experience and skill makes him one of the toughest quarterbacks for opposing secondaries to deal with in the NFL.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither team excels at tight end or linebacker. With the way Rico Dowdle has performed—and now with Chuba Hubbard in the mix—I’ll give the slight edge to Carolina in this area.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams enter this matchup with injuries in the secondary. Even so, Los Angeles has been stronger overall on the back end and features the more talented receiving corps by a wide margin.

Betting Trends

The Rams enter this week at 8-3 ATS, including a 3-1 mark on the road, a perfect 3-0 record as a road favorite, and a 3-3 split within the NFC. Totals have leaned toward the under in Rams games, hitting in 7 of 11 overall. However, the over has been more favorable away from home, cashing in 3 of 4 road contests and 2 of 3 when the Rams are road favorites. NFC matchups have seen totals split evenly at three apiece.

Carolina comes in at 7-5 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home, a strong 3-1 mark as a home underdog, and a 5-2 record in NFC play. Totals have been evenly split at 6-6, though the over has hit in 3 of 5 home games and 3 of 4 games where the Panthers were home dogs. In NFC matchups, the under has been more common, hitting in 4 of 7.

Final Thoughts

There’s no way around it — this is a tough test for the Carolina Panthers. Los Angeles is the stronger team in almost every phase, and they come into this matchup playing extremely well. Even with that in mind, the spread sitting at -10 to -10.5 in favor of the Rams feels a bit heavy. I lean toward the Panthers covering at home, but I’m staying away from the total in this one.