We don’t have a lot of new blood in the 2025 MLB Playoffs, but the Reds are a welcomed addition to the postseason. We’ll see if they can do with the worst record of any playoff team since 2006. Though, I guess it is worth noting as they get ready for their Reds vs. Dodgers series that it was the 2006 Cardinals that went 83-78 and they went on to win the World Series.

The Reds are actually just the third playoff team ever with 83 wins, as the 2006 Cardinals and the 1889 New York Giants are the others. We also have the 82-80 Padres in 2005 and the 82-79 Mets in 1973. The Diamondbacks made it with just 84 wins in 2023 and rode their wave all the way to the World Series.

The 10-win gap between the Reds and Dodgers is the biggest one we’ve had in the Wild Card Series era (since 2022), surpassing the Rangers and Rays from 2023. The Rangers won that series and went on to win the World Series. So, anything can happen in the playoffs, even though the Reds are sizable dogs for the trek out west.

Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.

Reds vs. Dodgers Wild Card Odds

Cincinnati Reds +205 // Los Angeles Dodgers -245

Over 2.5 Games (+105/-125)

Odds as of 8:30 a.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday, September 29

Reds vs. Dodgers Wild Card Series Preview

Embed from Getty Images

Offense

Like their AL neighbors up I-71, the Reds do not have a good offense. But, they’ve gotten some terrific starting pitching and did just enough to make it into the postseason for the first time since 2020 and first time in a non-COVID season since 2013. The Reds haven’t won a playoff series since 1995.

This is a Cincinnati squad that enters the second season ranked 19th in wOBA at .309, but their 92 wRC+ ranks 24th. Only the Guardians are lower among playoff teams. Great American Ball Park is a good venue for offense, so Cincinnati is graded on a curve for their home games. They did score 14 fewer runs on the road and went just 38-43 compared to a 45-36 home record.

Because of the run-scoring environment of the playoffs, power is really important. The Reds only hit 167 home runs. Even Cleveland hit more than that. Though, the Reds only have the third-fewest of the NL playoff teams, as both the Brewers (166) and Padres (152) hit fewer. Petco Park is certainly a factor for San Diego.

But that is a huge worry for the Reds in this series. Elly De La Cruz led the team with 22 blasts. Spencer Steer was second with 21. Combine those two and they are still 12 home runs short of what Shohei Ohtani did with 55 round-trippers. That being said, the Dodgers did not get their usual power production from Freddie Freeman (24) or Mookie Betts (20). Max Muncy finally realized he couldn’t see the baseball and wound up with 19 dingers.

Teoscar Hernandez hit his 25th during the final week of the regular season and Andy Pages was a surprising second-place finisher with 27. That said, it is very obvious that the Dodgers are the more dangerous lineup.

Using FanGraphs’ all-encompassing BsR metric, the Reds were a better baserunning team than the Dodgers. Other than that, there are no categories where the Reds finished better than the Dodgers. And LA, even without that power production, finished second in runs scored with 825. Only the Padres and Guardians scored fewer runs than the Reds (716) among playoff teams.

Advantage: Dodgers

Pitching

The only team in baseball to get more fWAR from their starting pitchers than the Reds was the Phillies. Philadelphia was 5.4 fWAR better than the Reds, but Cincinnati was more than a full win over the Rangers. That group is the reason why Cincinnati is in the playoffs, especially when you consider how the Mets were 13th in that department.

Andrew Abbott actually led the Reds in fWAR with 3.9. It probably would have been Hunter Greene, but he made 19 starts to Abbott’s 29. Greene will be the guy in the spotlight for Game 1, though, as the flame-throwing right-hander couldn’t replicate his career-best 2.75 ERA from last season, but a 2.76 ERA will surely do. His xERA was 0.08 runs higher, but his FIP and xFIP were both career-bests. Greene bumped his K% to 31.4% and lowered his BB% to 6.2%. Those were two huge developments in his maturation process, even if challenging hitters more led to a 45% Hard Hit% and a 9.6% Barrel%, both below league average.

Abbott is your classic 92-93 mph southpaw with a deep arsenal and excellent fastball command. Nick Lodolo has more swing-and-miss upside. Unlike Abbott, his fastball graded as a minus pitch, but he had one of the game’s better changeups and his decreased fastball usage this season limited that pitch’s exposure. 

Unfortunately for the Reds, the Dodgers were third in wOBA against LHP at .329, so tossing the lefties at them may not be as much of an advantage as it would be against other teams. The Dodgers were also third in wOBA against RHP, too. Still, the starting pitchers absolutely give the Reds a chance here. It’s just that a shaky bullpen follows those guys.

Of course the Dodgers are getting healthy on the pitching side at the right time. Yoshinobu Yamamoto easily paced the team with 5.0 fWAR and 173.2 innings of work. The next highest workload was Clayton Kershaw with 112.2 innings and then Dustin May with 104, but he was traded at the Trade Deadline to Boston.

Yamamoto’s been outstanding and he has a better supporting cast now with Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell both back. Emmet Sheehan has also been spectacular in 73.1 innings of work. And Shohei Ohtani had a 2.87 ERA with a 1.90 FIP in 47 innings over 14 starts. It seems like Glasnow will be available in relief if necessary in this series, as starting Ohtani makes sense since he can just hit for himself if he is needed for Game 3. Even Roki Sasaki is now a bullpen option.

Props to the Reds rotation for what they’ve done, but this is an obscene collection of arms for the Dodgers and because of how this season has played out, most of the guys are fresh. If nothing else, they’re all used to emptying the tank in short bursts. It’s almost unfair what they have.

Advantage: Dodgers

Defense

The heading says defense, but any other relevant stats or metrics that could impact the series will be included here as well.

I do think fatigue could play a factor in this series. This is the third trip out west for the Reds since late August. Add in fighting, scratching, and clawing with a team that isn’t particularly deep just to get into the playoffs and I’m not sure what kind of shape they are in.

The Dodgers made a trade for Ben Rortvedt because Will Smith was so bad at pitch framing and rookie Dalton Rushing is still trying to find his way with that. Tyler Stephenson doesn’t have good framing metrics either, but the Reds need his offense in the lineup. I will be interested to see if maybe they DH Stephenson at times to let Jose Trevino, a good pitch framer, be in the crouch.

The Dodgers only had 88 stolen bases, while the Reds had 105. None of the catchers involved, except for Smith, have been all that accomplished at shutting down the running game this season.

Among the other defensive positions, there isn’t a ton of difference. The Dodgers are +9 Outs Above Average, while the Reds are +2. Both teams have very strong infield defenses, with Cincinnati’s getting even better after the acquisition of 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes. Both teams are below average in the outfield

Advantage: Neither

Reds vs. Dodgers Prediction

As Mike Petriello of MLB.com and Statcast fame pointed out, the Dodgers just allowed the lowest batting average ever for a month at .173. They did so by having the highest K% in the league at 30.9%. The Reds are an awesome story and their starters should keep them in the game, but the Dodgers are just too much.

Honestly, Dodgers at +550 (Fanduel) or better are worth a look. Even though they would run into the Phillies in the next round because the playoffs don’t re-seed, the Zack Wheeler injury is a big deal in my mind. I think the Dodgers at least make the Fall Classic and I think they (and the Phillies) are better than any of the AL teams.

Pick: Dodgers -245; no official series bet, but Dodgers +550 or better to win WS

Other Wild Card Series Previews: Tigers vs. Guardians | Padres vs. Cubs | Red Sox vs. Yankees

The post Reds vs. Dodgers MLB Playoffs Wild Card Series Preview and Prediction appeared first on VSiN.