Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M Prediction

In the No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M is the first-round game on Thursday, March 19 with a trip to second round on the line.

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How to Watch Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M

When: 7:35 pm ET on Thursday, March 19th

Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK

Watch: TruTV

Odds for Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Saint Mary’s -2.5 (-110), Texas A&M +2.5 (-110)

Total: Over 148.5 (-110), Under 148.5 (-110)

Saint Mary’s vs. Texas A&M Prediction & Preview

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Saint Mary’s is back in the Dance for the fifth consecutive year under Randy Bennett, which is a remarkable run of consistency for a program that operates outside the power conference ecosystem. The Gaels lost in the first round of the WCC Tournament but got in anyway, a testament to the résumé Bennett has built — losses almost exclusively to tournament teams, with two to Santa Clara, two to Gonzaga, one to Vanderbilt, and a one-point defeat to Boise State. The ceiling question is the honest one to ask, because Bennett has only reached the Sweet 16 once in his entire tenure, and the Gaels have won a first-round game in just three of their last four trips. Getting in is no longer the achievement. Getting out of the first weekend is.

This year’s team gives Bennett a real shot at doing exactly that. The most important development is the 3-point shooting — Saint Mary’s shot just 32.2% from 3 last season and has jumped to 38.6% heading into the tournament, the best mark that Bennett has had since the 2020 season that COVID wiped out. The free throw shooting is also the best he’s ever had at 81.1%, which matters for a team that doesn’t get to the line frequently due to all the jump shots but needs to be able to close games with a lead. The pace has also ticked up to the highest adjusted tempo ranking for the Gaels since 2015 per Bart Torvik, which creates slightly more variance than the grinding style that opponents typically game-plan for. The defensive profile took a minor step back with a lower turnover rate, but the overall package — diverse roster, strong shooting, and a slightly more unpredictable tempo — makes this one of the more dangerous Saint Mary’s teams in recent memory.

Texas A&M is essentially a brand-new program in Year 1 under Bucky McMillan, and the speed of the transformation is genuinely impressive. Buzz Williams left for Maryland, and with him went every single rotation player — not a single one of the 10 Aggies who played meaningful minutes last season returned. McMillan rebuilt the roster from scratch with transfers from USC, Kansas, NC State, Creighton, North Alabama, Southern Illinois, Samford, and a JUCO addition, specifically targeting guys who could finish at the rim, shoot 3s, or do both. The results on offense have been striking. Four players are shooting 39.6% or better from 3, three players had at least 100 shot attempts at the rim, every regular shoots 71% or better from the free throw line, and the Aggies ranked in the top 25 in assist rate. The transition from Buzz Ball to Bucky Ball happened about as smoothly as anyone could have reasonably expected.

The vulnerabilities are real and worth noting. The non-conference schedule was weak enough to cost the Aggies on their seed line, and the 2-point defense has been a problem all season — opponents shot 62% at the rim against Texas A&M, which ranked in the 240s nationally. This is not a particularly tall team, and interior defense requires length and positioning that McMillan’s transplanted roster hasn’t consistently provided. Saint Mary’s doesn’t bulldoze opponents inside, but a team that shoots 38.6% from 3 and shares the ball effectively will find ways to exploit soft rim protection when the defense has to close out hard on the perimeter.

This is a genuinely interesting stylistic matchup. Texas A&M’s modern offense against a Saint Mary’s team that has remade itself into a legitimate shooting team at a slightly faster pace. The Aggies have enough firepower to make it competitive, but Bennett’s experience in these spots and the Gaels’ superior shooting efficiency give Saint Mary’s the edge when it matters most.

Estimated Score: TBD

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