Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Date: January 4th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Depending on how Saturday’s Panthers–Buccaneers game plays out, this Saints–Falcons matchup could play a pivotal role in determining who represents the NFC South in the playoffs. If the Buccaneers win on Saturday and the Falcons win on Sunday, Tampa Bay would clinch the division. However, if the Buccaneers win and the Saints pull off an upset, the Panthers will claim the NFC South.

New Orleans wasn’t expected to be competitive this season, but they’ve quietly turned things around of late, winning four straight games to improve to 6–10 on the year. Statistically, the offense still leaves something to be desired, though it has improved from earlier in the season. The Saints rank 23rd in yards per game (311.9) and 29th in points per game (18.1). Defensively, they’ve been much stronger, coming in 9th in yards allowed per game (305.5) and 16th in points allowed per game (22.8).

Atlanta appeared to be trending toward a strong season early on, but a midseason slump derailed that momentum. Still, they enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak with a 7–9 record. Offensively, the Falcons are 13th in yards per game (340.8) but struggle to convert yardage into points, ranking 24th at 20.9 points per game. Defensively, they’ve been fairly average, sitting 14th in yards allowed per game (325.8) and 20th in points allowed per game (24.0).

With both teams potentially missing several key players, this matchup carries plenty of intrigue and could come down to which team is better able to adapt.

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Betting Overview

This game opened with Atlanta favored by 4.5 points, but that number has come down, with the Falcons now laying 3 to 3.5 points depending on the sportsbook. The moneyline has seen modest movement, as New Orleans sits at +164 (from +180), while Atlanta is currently at -172 (from -218). The total has ticked up slightly as well, moving from an opening number of 42.5 to around 44 or 44.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Saints’ coaching staff entering the season, and rightfully so with first-time head coach Kellen Moore. However, Moore has proven not only effective, but transformative, helping reshape the culture in New Orleans. He’s played a major role in guiding rookie quarterback Tyler Shough through his first season, and his support staff—including offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier and defensive coordinator Brandon Staley—has fully bought in. As a result, this franchise appears to be trending in the right direction. The same cannot be said for Raheem Morris, who has underperformed despite a talented roster and now finds himself firmly on the hot seat.

OLs vs. DLs: It’s impressive how much the Saints have improved overall, given their struggles along both the offensive and defensive lines. Atlanta, however, is stronger on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this matchup, giving the Falcons a clear advantage up front.

QBs: New Orleans holds the edge at quarterback. Since rookie Tyler Shough took over as the starter, the Saints are 5–3, and he’s thrown for 2,125 yards with nine touchdowns. Kirk Cousins stepped in after Michael Penix Jr. suffered a knee injury and has steadied the ship for Atlanta, but when factoring in Shough’s upward trajectory and recent play, the advantage leans toward New Orleans.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This should be an intriguing matchup over the middle of the field. Atlanta clearly has the more talented offensive weapons in this area, though Kyle Pitts’ availability remains uncertain. On the other side, New Orleans has the edge at off-ball linebacker, led by veteran Demario Davis—whose status is also in question for Sunday.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This matchup on the outside favors Atlanta on both sides of the ball. New Orleans will be without star wide receiver Chris Olave, while Atlanta may also be missing a few receivers. Even so, the Falcons possess a significantly stronger secondary than the Saints this season.

Betting Trends

New Orleans has held the edge in this matchup over the last 10 meetings, winning six of them, though the two teams have split ATS results at five apiece. Totals have also split evenly, with the over and under each hitting five times during that span. Earlier this season, Atlanta won this matchup 24–10, covering the spread while the under cashed.

The Saints are an even 8–8 ATS this season, including a strong 5–3 record on the road (all as underdogs) and a 3–2 record in divisional play. Totals have heavily favored the under, which has hit in 11 of 16 games. On the road, totals have split evenly, while divisional games have leaned under, hitting in four of five.

Atlanta enters this matchup at 8–7–1 ATS, with a 3–4 record at home, a 1–3 record as a home favorite, and a 2–3 mark in the division. Totals have also gone 8–7–1 overall. At home, the over has been more favorable, hitting in four of seven games, while divisional matchups have leaned under, hitting in three of five.

Final Thoughts

With potentially significant playoff implications tied to this game, NFC South fans will be closely watching how this one unfolds. The Saints appear to be missing a few too many key contributors for my liking in this matchup. I believe the Falcons will be able to control the line of scrimmage, win the game, and cover the spread. As for the total, I would slightly lean toward the under here.