Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Date: November 9th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

We haven’t seen the Carolina Panthers in an NFC South matchup since Week 3, but divisional play picks back up this week as they host the New Orleans Saints. It’s been rough sailing for the Saints all season—especially over the past three games, where they’ve lost each by double digits. On the year, they sit at 1-8 overall with an 0-4 record on the road. Offensively, New Orleans has been one of the league’s weakest units, ranking 29th in total yards per game (287.1) and 31st in scoring (15.3 points per game). Defensively, they’ve struggled as well, allowing 333.3 yards per game (18th) and 27 points per game (24th).

Meanwhile, after a gritty win last week in Green Bay, the Panthers are back above .500 at 5-4. Their offense still has room for growth, sitting 22nd in total yards (310.7) and 27th in scoring (18.9). Defensively, however, they’ve been solid—ranking 13th in yards allowed (316.6) and 16th in points allowed (22.8). This divisional rivalry is always a fun one, but given how poorly the Saints have played, this should be a strong opportunity for Carolina to take care of business.

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Weather

Sunday in Charlotte will be pleasant from a temperature standpoint as we’ll see things in the low 70s, and only a 4% chance of precipitation.  Wind may make things interesting however, as we’ll see averages around 8 mph, with gusts up to 24 mph.

Betting Overview

This game opened with Carolina favored at -4.5, but the line has since moved to -5 or -5.5 depending on the sportsbook. The moneylines have remained relatively steady, with the best value for the Saints at +210 and the Panthers at -240. The total has seen a noticeable drop, falling from 43.5 down to 40 or even 39.5 at some books.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: As has been the case in most Saints games this year, their staff hasn’t really had the chance to prove much. Dave Canales, on the other hand, continues to show promise as an NFL head coach, steadily building progress throughout the season.

DLs vs. OLs: The Panthers have been strong up front on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense. New Orleans, meanwhile, lacks the same level of talent and consistency in the trenches.

QBs: This may be the first matchup all season where Bryce Young is clearly the better quarterback. Tyler Shough didn’t look sharp in his first start last week in Los Angeles.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: The Saints might have a slight edge over the middle of the field. While Rico Dowdle has outperformed Alvin Kamara this season, New Orleans has the stronger tight end and linebacker groups overall.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams have fairly similar receiving corps, especially following Rashid Shaheed’s departure. The Saints’ secondary has been marginally better, giving them a slight advantage in this area.

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 meetings between these teams, the Saints have won 6, while Carolina has covered in 5. New Orleans has covered in 4, with 1 push over that span. We’ve also seen the under hit in 7 of those 10 matchups.

New Orleans is now 2-7 ATS on the year, with a 1-3 record on the road and an 0-1 record in divisional play. Unders have been more common, hitting in 6 of 9 games overall and splitting 2 apiece on the road. In the Saints’ lone division game, the under also hit.

Carolina has been strong ATS this season at 6-3, including a 3-1 record at home—all of which came as an underdog. They’re also 1-0 ATS in NFC South play. The over has been slightly more frequent, hitting in 5 of 9 games overall and 3 of 4 at home. Their lone home divisional game against the Falcons resulted in the under.

Final Thoughts

It will be interesting to see how Tyler Shough approaches this matchup after his first career start. While this game carries the divisional element, the vastly different coaching staff and numerous new faces on the Saints roster make it feel unlike the classic Saints–Panthers battles of the past. I expect the Panthers to take control late and cover the spread, and with the total sitting as low as it is right now, I’d lean toward the over.