Game: San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

Date: September 14th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

Things in this Week 2 matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints have shifted significantly with the news of Brock Purdy’s turf toe injury. It appears the 49ers will need to rely on fifth-year quarterback Mac Jones for the next couple of weeks. Last week, San Francisco pulled out a close win on the road against division rival Seattle. Offensively, things were a bit uneven, but three-time First-Team All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey looked in good form despite lingering injury concerns. The defense held strong against Seattle, though the Seahawks appear to be entering somewhat of a rebuild this season. Still, a win is a win. As for the Saints, their matchup with the Arizona Cardinals ended in a somewhat expected loss. New Orleans relied too heavily on the pass in Week 1, as Spencer Rattler attempted 46 throws, completing just 27 for 214 yards. With the Saints at home once again this week, and the 49ers missing their starting QB, pulling out a win will be vital to their season.

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Betting Overview

This line has shifted in a major way with the news on Brock Purdy. The game opened with the 49ers favored between 7 and 7.5 points, but it has moved significantly toward New Orleans, though San Francisco still sits between -3 and -3.5. The moneyline for the 49ers dropped from -340 to between -160 and -170, while the Saints moved from +270 to between +135 and +150. The over/under also dipped from 44.5 down to 40.5. The majority of spread bets have landed on the Saints at 72%, while total money has leaned toward the 49ers at 57%. Most of the total bets have hit the under at 95%, with little difference in the money at 97%.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching edge in this matchup is clearly in favor of San Francisco. They bring far more continuity and experience than the New Orleans staff. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has led the team since 2017, posting an overall record of 71-62, and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has returned.

DLs vs. OLs: The battle in the trenches clearly goes in favor of San Francisco, with a stronger offensive line and effective edge rushers. The only concern is that the 49ers’ interior defensive line is among the weaker units in the NFL, which should allow the Saints to establish the run up the middle.

QBs: Surprisingly, we have a toss-up in the QB discussion this week, but I’ll give a slight edge to Mac Jones, based solely on his experience. Spencer Rattler showed some flashes last week, but with how strong San Francisco’s edge rushers are, it could turn into a long day for him.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: The Saints arguably have a stronger off-ball linebacker group than San Francisco, but when you factor in the running back skills of Christian McCaffrey, along with a dynamic tight end like George Kittle, this position battle tilts in favor of the 49ers. Saints tight end Juwan Johnson did have a strong performance last week, so it will be interesting to see if he can carry that momentum into this week.

WRs vs. Secondaries: I’ll give the edge to the Saints in this category, as they possess a stronger overall secondary, and San Francisco’s wide receiver room is not at full strength right now.

Betting Trends from 2024

Last year the 49ers were not very good against the spread, especially on the road. They finished 1-7-0 overall away from home, and 1-4-0 as a road favorite. The over, however, was effective in these games, hitting in 5 of 8 road contests, and in 3 of 5 when the 49ers were road favorites.

The Saints also weren’t very good ATS at home last year, with a 4-5-0 home record, and 3-4-0 as a home underdog. The under was notable as well, cashing in 5 of their 9 home games, and in 4 of 7 when the Saints were listed as home underdogs.

Final Thoughts

Now with a full week of tape on Kellen Moore, I think the 49ers will come out with the win here, despite Brock Purdy’s injury. The Saints may manage to keep it close for a while, but in the end, I think San Francisco’s coaching experience, along with the overall stronger roster, will prove too much for New Orleans.